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US Strikes Iran. Bitcoin Barely Flinched.
Fourteen hours ago, the US conducted “self-defense” strikes in Southern Iran, hitting Iranian vessels that allegedly were laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz, along with some missile launch locations.
The strikes occurred during an extremely sensitive time, as substantive peace negotiations are happening now in Doha, Qatar.
But if you were only watching Bitcoin’s price, you wouldn’t have thought anything happened. The news dropped Bitcoin less than 1%; and at the time of this writing, Bitcoin is basically back to pre-strike prices.  Now here’s why Bitcoin barely flinched — Iran is not the primary driver of Bitcoin’s price action. The clearest evidence is that when the Iran conflict first kicked off on February 28th, Bitcoin never put in a new local low below the $60K level it had already printed on February 6th. If Iran was so consequential to Bitcoin’s price, then the asset probably would have.
The real forces at work are the classic four-year cycle sell-off on one side, and Strategy’s aggressive accumulation (via STRC sales) on the other. Those two counter-pressures dwarf near-term geopolitical noise.
Now make no mistake, the Iran developments do create short-term volatility, but it’s the bigger forces — the four-year cycle, Strategy’s purchases, and ETF flows — that actually matter for Bitcoin’s medium to long-term direction.
Hyperliquid Launches Prediction Markets
Hyperliquid has officially expanded its platform with native prediction markets for real-world events. This is breaking news as of today.
Users can now trade perps on basically everything, plus macro outcome bets (US inflation data, Fed rate decisions, etc), all on a single platform without having to move collateral to different venues.  Hyperliquid's prediction market technology is substantially different from rivals like Polymarket or Kalshi. Polymarket uses a UMA external oracle, whereby token holders vote to resolve disputes. Kalshi verifies outcomes via a centralized, in-house team. But Hyperliquid uses its own validator set to ingest news feeds, decide which markets to launch, and cast votes on final settlement outcomes.
Hyperliquid’s prediction market pivot puts immediate pressure on Polymarket and Kalshi, while serving as yet another catalyst for HYPE. With Hyperliquid becoming a true everything trading platform, expect a continued increase in volumes, revenues, and token buybacks.
Bitcoin Options Coming to Nasdaq
If you’re a US retail investor who’s wanted real Bitcoin options, your choices have been extremely limited — until now.
Breaking news as of yesterday, the SEC has granted conditional approval to Nasdaq PHLX to list cash-settled, European-style Bitcoin options under the ticker QBTC (still pending final CFTC approval).
Fundamentally, options are price insurance contracts. Buyers pay premiums to sellers for protection against (or a bet on) Bitcoin’s price moves over a set period of time. The buyer’s risk is limited to the premium paid — like buying insurance on your house. Sellers collect the premiums upfront and take the risk on potential price movements. This dynamic creates powerful opportunities for both hedging and income generation.  The new QBTC options will track Bitcoin’s spot price, settle in cash (no actual Bitcoin delivered), and trade directly on your existing stock brokerage platform. Each contract delivers exposure to exactly one Bitcoin — far smaller than the CME’s 5-Bitcoin contracts — which means it’s a lot more retail friendly from a sizing (cost) perspective.
If approved, this product will finally bring professional-grade Bitcoin risk management and income generation opportunities to a much broader US audience.
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