|
BTC Treasury Companies (and ETFs) are Back, Baby
The two major Bitcoin treasury companies, Strategy and Strive, are buying Bitcoin again, and the US spot Bitcoin ETFs accumulated more solid inflows yesterday. Now all of this institutional action is helping Bitcoin keep close to $80K, so let’s discuss the details:  ● Strategy: According to a SEC filing submitted yesterday, Strategy broke a two month drought by purchasing 4,603 BTC last week for $369.7M (paying $80K per coin). This brings the company’s total stack to 845,050 BTC (worth $65.9B; $75K per coin). The company also bought back $151M of STRC, which currently is priced at $97. Strategy is trying to get STRC back to the $100 par. To help fund all of this, Strategy sold 4.5M MSTR via ATM sales last week for $602M.
● Strive: Yesterday’s SEC filing shows that the company bought 1,800 BTC last week, funded in part via SATA’s ATM program. SATA got back to its $100 par on August 20th, so the company has been buying Bitcoin via these preferred sales ever since. Strive is now Bitcoin’s fifth largest corporate holder, with 23K coins total.
● Spot Bitcoin ETFs: They’re kicking ass right now. 10 of the past 11 trading days have been in the green, totalling 3.05B in net inflows since August 17th. And August was actually the ETFs’ strongest month thus far in 2026. The ETFs’ grand net inflow total is currently $54.9B.
It’s good to see the treasury companies and ETFs purchasing again. Now of course, the macro can change, and flip these entities back into net sellers. But so far, all of this looks like yet another data point indicating that this cycle’s low has already come and gone.
Hyperliquid’s Permissionless Prediction Markets Go Live
Hyperliquid’s permissionless prediction markets went live on Saturday. This means that any entity that stakes 500K HYPE (~$41.5M) can launch prediction markets on Hyperliquid’s mainnet.
Here’s the basics of how it all works. Users can trade these markets through deployers that are already live on Hyperliquid. It’s all found on Hyperliquid’s site, under the “Outcomes” tab. Current markets include price predictions on BTC, HYPE, SOL, WTI, gold, and indices, along with economic and macro questions like the upcoming September Fed decision.  But under the hood, the deployer’s 500K HYPE stake is locked for six months, and it can be slashed if the deployer’s market is poorly defined or settled incorrectly. Markets are denominated in USDC, and deployers can keep up to 50% of the trading fees.
Now to clarify, Hyperliquid prediction markets have been live since May, but the permissionless launch happened Saturday. Therefore, expect Hyperliquid’s predictions marketplace to become much more diverse moving forward.
Bigger picture, this all likely means more value appreciation for HYPE. More markets means more trading fees and more USDC sitting on Hyperliquid. And both of these things mean more HYPE buybacks and burns.
This Week’s Economic Data Releases
Last week’s major economic news was Warsh’s hawkish talk at the Jackson Hole symposium. If we take Warsh at his word, then the Fed is intent on lowering inflation, which is still in the 3s (the Fed wants it in the 2s). Warsh’s comments increased the odds of a September rate hike to 66%, which also acted as a Bitcoin price buoy.
And interestingly, it does appear that the Federal Reserve and the US Treasury are at odds with each other, because the Fed wants higher yields, while Bessent’s Treasury is active in the US bond markets and trying to push yields lower.  So that’s the larger context moving into this week. Now here’s the upcoming data prints to keep on your radar:
● S&P and ISM Manufacturing PMIs (Today, 9:45 am ET): Both measure the country’s economic health from the manufacturing perspective. Readings above 50 indicate economic expansion. The S&P PMI’s previous and forecast prints are 53.9 and 53.2, respectively. The ISM PMI’s previous and forecast prints are 55.6 and 55.2, respectively
● JOLTS Job Openings (Today, 10:00 am ET): Measures the number of unfilled positions that US employers are actively trying to fill (labor demand). The JOLTS previous and forecast prints are 7.35M and 7.33M, respectively.
● S&P and ISM Services PMIs (Thursday, 9:45 am ET): Both measure the country’s economic health from the services perspective, which is the largest sector of the US economy. Readings above 50 indicate economic expansion. The S&P PMI’s previous and forecast prints are both 56.8. And the ISM PMI’s previous and forecast prints are both 54.1.
● Nonfarm Payrolls (Friday, 8:30 am ET): Measures the monthly change in the number of US employer payrolls, excluding farming. The nonfarm payroll’s previous and forecast prints are -23K and 58K, respectively.
● US Employment Rate (Friday, 8:30 am ET): Measures the percentage of the American labor force that’s unemployed. Both the previous and forecast prints are 4.1%.
Ultimately, the Fed is currently concerned with elevated inflation, and they appear happy with US economic activity and employment levels. Therefore, don’t expect any of this week’s data prints to drop September’s rate hike odds, unless we get some really bad economic or employment prints.
| 
