Peter Brandt: Bottom is October

Chart of the Day — BTC ETFs Indicate Bear Almost Over
Trade of the Day — The Last Great Bitcoin Short
Alpha Leaks — INTC, TSLA & VIRTUALS
News Roundup — Brandt's Predictions, Orange Juice & Trump Agrees to CLARITY

BTC ETFs Indicate Bear Almost Over

From sosovalue.com, here’s the US spot Bitcoin ETF net inflows, overlaid with price, since October 10, 2025 until current. Focus on the right side of the chart.

Notice the heavy, consecutive outflow days for basically all of May and June 2026. These outflow days occurred while Bitcoin was setting new lows at $59K, and then again at $57.8K. Now notice that the ETFs have mostly flipped to positive since early July. These July inflows aren’t massive, but they’re not nothing, either.

So there’s two points to note from this flip:

1. We’ve been suspecting that the ETFs flipping back to positive, even if not significant, would signal that the cycle bottom is in, or we’re close to it. Now we don’t know for certain, but this shift does give us more confidence that the feared $38K cycle bottom probably never materializes.

2. This flip is happening while we’re seeing major sell-offs in chip stocks like Sandisk and Micron Technology. This negative correlation helps dispel the worry that a larger tech sell-off would cause the same to Bitcoin.

The Last Great Bitcoin Short

Our Trade of the Day is shorting Bitcoin. Now this trade isn’t hot yet, but we think it will be at some point between now and the next two to three weeks.

If our four year thesis is correct in terms of timing (i.e. the bottom hits in October), then consider this the last big Bitcoin short setup for this cycle. We’re NOT going to miss you, Bitcoin shorts!! Our recommended entry for this setup is a rejection at the 200D SMA, which is currently printing at $72.8K.

Go Premium for the full technical setup on this last Bitcoin short for this cycle, with the recommended stop loss and take profit targets. Inner Circle members have been stacking wins recently, with successful Bitcoin and ZCash shorts generating real percentage gains. We’re taking positions regardless if the larger market is going up or down. Go premium today to catch our signals.

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Peter Brandt: Bottom is October

Veteran trader Peter Brandt, in an interview released over the weekend, has predicted that Bitcoin likely bottoms in “early October“. But Brandt’s projected price bottom range appears to be wider: “possibility into the 40s, high 40s maybe.”

As evidence, Brandt cites the historical consistency of Bitcoin’s market cycles, along with the current sentiment.

Regarding the cycles, Brandt pointed out “that every major bear market in Bitcoin’s history has been an 80% plus correction”. But note that this is actually incorrect, as last cycle’s drawdown was 77.66%. Regardless, Brandt did acknowledge that this time could be different, stating “of course that’s always the caveat, you get a well developed cycle and that’s the time the cycle changes, that’s always the risk, but the Bitcoin cycle has been very consistent.”

Regarding sentiment, Brandt stated that markets bottom “on panic and volume” and not on “neutral sentiment”. Brandt believes the latter characterizes the market right now.

Now while we tend to agree with Brandt on the timing of a potential low, we’re not so certain about any projected price bottom, other than that the $38K worst-case scenario is looking less and less likely at this point in the calendar.

But back to Brandt, he also shared some broader views on Bitcoin, stating that he believes it’s a better investment than AI over the next few years, and that BTC will hit $250K to $300K by 2029.

Orange Juice Raises $40M for Capital Firm + BTC Treasury

Orange Juice has raised $40M to launch a permanent capital firm that acquires cash-flowing US businesses and then uses that cash-flow for a Bitcoin treasury.

Founded by Jeff Booth and Lyn Alden, and backed by Mexican billionaire Ricardo Salines, Orange Juice plans to buy cash-flow positive businesses generating between $1M and $10M annually. Acquired companies keep their existing brands and base operations, while Orange Juice acts as a long term holding company, and uses the revenues for additional company acquisitions and for buying Bitcoin. The eventual plan is for Orange Juice to go public.

This model breathes some much needed fresh air into the Bitcoin treasury space, as it focuses on strong revenue generation outside of Bitcoin, that’s then used to purchase Bitcoin. This is opposed to the inherently circular and leveraged models adopted by Strategy, Twenty One Capital, and many others.

Anchor investor Ricardo Salinas backed the firm based on its cash flow focus and protecting value outside the traditional fiat systems. In explaining the why, Salinas stated, "I have built a diversified conglomerate serving millions of customers in Latin America and employing over 170,000 people. From this I have learned two things: cash flow is king, and you cannot count on governments to protect the value of your money.”

Trump Agrees to CLARITY Ethics

According to an “industry source” who spoke to The Block yesterday, President Trump has agreed to an ethics provision in the CLARITY Act. This “ethics fight” within CLARITY appears to be the final boss before the bill can be passed by Congress.

Trump’s agreement marks a notable step forward after months of negotiations. But interestingly, Trump’s acquiescence came after a round of discussions last week between Senate Republicans and the White House, and apparently the Democrats have not yet seen the agreed-upon language.

This means that Trump’s Republican allies had to persuade the President to agree to the provisions. Therefore, any expectations that CLARITY will pass need to be tempered, because it’s not at all clear that the Democrats will play ball.

The CLARITY Act aims to create a comprehensive legal framework for digital assets. Its passage is regarded as bullish for Bitcoin and crypto, because it would provide clear “rules of the road” for institutions.

Republican senators are now sprinting to get a revised bill ready that they believe can pass the Senate. But it’s now or never, as the text needs to be revised, sent to the Senate floor, passed, and sent back to the House for reconciliation. And all of this must happen before Congress’ recess in early August.

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