|
Bitcoin Breaks $80K. Here’s Why.
Bitcoin broke above $80K yesterday, marking the highest price for the asset since late January, and a 35% recovery from the most recent $60K bottom. Here’s the current tailwinds behind this price action:  ● Bitcoin ETF Inflows: Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded roughly $2B in net inflows for April — the strongest month since October 2025. Analysts call it a clear sign of renewed institutional interest.
● CLARITY Act Progress: The CLARITY Act saw a possible compromise on stablecoin yield last week, which boosts the odds of passage. A formal bill markup might happen this week, and Polymarket participants now think there’s a 64% chance that CLARITY becomes law in 2026.
● Strategy: The company now holds 818K coins, or 3.8% of the total supply. Strategy has increased its stack by 13% since the January $60K bottom, mostly by selling STRC’s 11.5% yield.
● Stock Market ATHs: The stock markets are full risk-on right now, and this likely gives Bitcoin investors some confidence to go long.
None of these factors were present four years ago, when Bitcoin failed the 200D SMA retest in March 2022. So the trillion-dollar question now is will these factors be strong enough to make this time different.
Potential CLARITY Compromise Gets Closer
As mentioned above, it appears the crypto and TradFi lobbies are nearing a compromise with regards to stablecoin yield under the CLARITY Act.
Senators Tillis (R-NC) and Alsobrooks (D-Md) released the compromise CLARITY text on Friday. It bans yield on idle stablecoins (i.e. no “buy and hold” interest payments), while preserving rewards for stablecoins used in certain activities (i.e. “buy and use” rewards approved).  Major crypto groups like Coinbase and Circle endorsed the revised text and called on the Senate Banking Committee to move to markup. The TradFi banking lobby was less enthusiastic, indicating that the bill was directionally correct, but still missing the mark on key details.
This stablecoin yield issue has been THE roadblock for the CLARITY Act. The banks argue that stablecoin yield will spark deposit flight from the banking system, while crypto firms say that it’s economically fair to depositors, well within a company's rights to pay it, and needed for overall competitiveness.
With the yield issue nearing resolution, analysts believe a Senate vote might happen before the August recess, with the CLARITY Act becoming law by the end of the year. This would mark the most significant US crypto legislation to date.
US Jobs Data Incoming
There's some major US jobs data incoming this week, and the markets will be watching it all closely for clues as to whether the Fed will cut or hold rates steady later this year. Here's what's on the docket:  ● JOLTS (Today, 10 am EST): Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey — a key gauge of employer labor demand. The consensus expectation is roughly 6.85M job openings. February’s print was 6.88M.
● ADP (Tomorrow, 8:15 am EST): ADP National Employment Report — private-sector payroll change. The expectation is a range between 60K - 100K jobs added. March’s print was 62K.
● BLS (Friday, 8:30 am EST): Official nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate. The expectation is a range of 60K - 95K net jobs added, with unemployment holding steady at 4.3%. March’s print was 178K new jobs, with unemployment at 4.3%.
Taken together, if these expectations meet reality, then it signals stagflationary pressures (historically weak labor market + elevated inflation), which puts the Fed in a difficult position to achieve their dual mandate (strong labor + low inflation).
| 
