Bitcoin Breaks $80K

Chart of the Day — Line in the Sand for Bitcoin's Bears
Trade of the Day — Long Circle (CRCL)
Alpha Leaks — AMD, MegaETH, Sui & Super Micro Computer
News Roundup — Bitcoin Breaks $80K, CLARITY Compromise & US Jobs Data
Degen Play — Short Bitcoin

Line in the Sand for Bitcoin's Bears

The 200D SMA is a major line in the sand for the bears, and it’s currently at $83.4K and falling fast.

If prices keep below this line, then we’re probably due for another leg down, and the four year cycle remains intact. But if prices can flip this SMA into support, then that will mark a major deviation from last cycle, and we can begin to seriously consider the possibility that the four year cycle has been broken.

And notice last cycle that when prices rallied back to the 200D SMA in March 2022, it was the mother of all bull traps. The SMA held as firm resistance, and it marked the beginning of Bitcoin’s final descent to the cycle bottom.

Long Circle (CRCL)

Circle (CRCL) busted out of this symmetrical triangle yesterday on absolutely huge volumes. Now pre-market prices this morning are at $123, but we believe there’s more room left to run for CRCL.

The technical price target on this move is between $166 - $187, depending on how the triangle is drawn.

There’s two major catalysts behind Circle right now: (1) a potential CLARITY Act compromise (Circle is a big beneficiary, see our second news story), and (2) Circle’s Q1 2026 earnings release on May 11th (it’s possible that the market is sensing another estimate blowout.

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Bitcoin Breaks $80K. Here’s Why.

Bitcoin broke above $80K yesterday, marking the highest price for the asset since late January, and a 35% recovery from the most recent $60K bottom. Here’s the current tailwinds behind this price action:

● Bitcoin ETF Inflows: Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded roughly $2B in net inflows for April — the strongest month since October 2025. Analysts call it a clear sign of renewed institutional interest.

● CLARITY Act Progress: The CLARITY Act saw a possible compromise on stablecoin yield last week, which boosts the odds of passage. A formal bill markup might happen this week, and Polymarket participants now think there’s a 64% chance that CLARITY becomes law in 2026.

● Strategy: The company now holds 818K coins, or 3.8% of the total supply. Strategy has increased its stack by 13% since the January $60K bottom, mostly by selling STRC’s 11.5% yield.

● Stock Market ATHs: The stock markets are full risk-on right now, and this likely gives Bitcoin investors some confidence to go long.

None of these factors were present four years ago, when Bitcoin failed the 200D SMA retest in March 2022. So the trillion-dollar question now is will these factors be strong enough to make this time different.

Potential CLARITY Compromise Gets Closer

As mentioned above, it appears the crypto and TradFi lobbies are nearing a compromise with regards to stablecoin yield under the CLARITY Act.

Senators Tillis (R-NC) and Alsobrooks (D-Md) released the compromise CLARITY text on Friday. It bans yield on idle stablecoins (i.e. no “buy and hold” interest payments), while preserving rewards for stablecoins used in certain activities (i.e. “buy and use” rewards approved).

Major crypto groups like Coinbase and Circle endorsed the revised text and called on the Senate Banking Committee to move to markup. The TradFi banking lobby was less enthusiastic, indicating that the bill was directionally correct, but still missing the mark on key details.

This stablecoin yield issue has been THE roadblock for the CLARITY Act. The banks argue that stablecoin yield will spark deposit flight from the banking system, while crypto firms say that it’s economically fair to depositors, well within a company's rights to pay it, and needed for overall competitiveness.

With the yield issue nearing resolution, analysts believe a Senate vote might happen before the August recess, with the CLARITY Act becoming law by the end of the year. This would mark the most significant US crypto legislation to date.

US Jobs Data Incoming

There's some major US jobs data incoming this week, and the markets will be watching it all closely for clues as to whether the Fed will cut or hold rates steady later this year. Here's what's on the docket:

● JOLTS (Today, 10 am EST): Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey — a key gauge of employer labor demand. The consensus expectation is roughly 6.85M job openings. February’s print was 6.88M.

● ADP (Tomorrow, 8:15 am EST): ADP National Employment Report — private-sector payroll change. The expectation is a range between 60K - 100K jobs added. March’s print was 62K.

● BLS (Friday, 8:30 am EST): Official nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate. The expectation is a range of 60K - 95K net jobs added, with unemployment holding steady at 4.3%. March’s print was 178K new jobs, with unemployment at 4.3%.

Taken together, if these expectations meet reality, then it signals stagflationary pressures (historically weak labor market + elevated inflation), which puts the Fed in a difficult position to achieve their dual mandate (strong labor + low inflation).

Short Bitcoin

Your Chart of the Day is your DEGEN Play of the Day. But let’s be honest here — this isn’t a DEGEN setup. Rather, it’s a smart hedge if you’re long spot Bitcoin, but believe that the four year cycle might still be intact.

In fact, when it comes to the most ideal times to short Bitcoin, then shorting just below the 200D SMA - at this particular time within the cycle - is arguably the best (along with shorting just below the 50W SMA).

The recommended stop loss on this short is $84K, with an initial take profit at $71.5K.

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