US Blockade Hits – Markets Couldn't Care Less

Chart of the Day — S&P 1.67% off ATHs
Trade of the Day — ETH Longs Open Now
Alpha Leaks — ETH, HYPE & Sandisk
News Roundup — US Blockade, STRC Hits Record Volumes & X Teases Crypto Launch
Degen Play — PUMP Longs Open Now

S&P 1.67% off ATHs

Despite the Iran conflict, a new US naval blockade, and volatile oil markets, the S&P 500 Index closed at Monday’s bell only 1.67% below its all-time high. And S&P futures as of Tuesday morning are trading at 6,936, just 66 points below the 7,002 record.

Now we discuss our theory as to why the markets are showing so much resilience in our first news story. But for now, here’s our deeper question: is the market’s collective wisdom showing accurate signal as to how this conflict plays out, or are market participants walking blind-folded off an economic cliff? We’re honestly not quite sure which it might be.

ETH Longs Open Now

ETH broke above this rising wedge consolidation yesterday, with prices currently trading just above the 100D EMA at $2,350. Thus, we think longs on ETH are open now. Alternatively, a more conservative trade would be limit longs at the channel’s resistance (i.e. $2,290), which is a bet that ETH retests and flips this resistance into support.

A reasonable take-profit on ETH longs is the 200D EMA at $2,664. And this take-profit aligns with the rising wedge’s technical measurement.

Stop Missing the Trades That Change Lives

Know the Big Trades Before They Hit

While most people are drowning in noise, a quiet group of investors already knows what's coming. They've got the research, the setups, and the edge.

This is the Inner Circle. We cut through the chaos and help deliver real signal.

Start your 7-day free trial right now — and discover what you've been missing.

US Blockade Hits – Markets Couldn't Care Less

The US military’s blockade of Iran ports, and the partial blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, officially began yesterday at 10 am EST.

Here’s why this matters:

● Higher Oil Prices, High Inflation: If the Iranians are blocking GCC oil transit, and the Americans are blocking Iranian oil transit, then there’s less oil supply to the global markets. That means higher inflation, tighter monetary policy, and suppression of risk asset valuations. US March CPI was already at 3.3% (up from 2.4% in February), and the effects from this oil shortage have not fully hit the global economy yet.

● Escalatory Risks: Iran has stated that the US’ blockade amounts to piracy and that they’ll respond in-kind to GCC ports. There’s just one week remaining on the temporary ceasefire.

But despite the blockade and the possible ramifications, the markets are acting like none of this is happening. As noted earlier, the S&P 500 closed yesterday just 1.67% below its record all-time high. And Bitcoin is threatening $75K in Tuesday’s morning hours, up 6% since yesterday.

So what explains the market’s resilience here? Our best theory is the market thinks that the US blockade, and perhaps even the larger conflict, will be short-lived. Indeed, the vast majority of national leaders, and their underlying constituents, want this conflict to end. So perhaps the market believes that the majority’s will — will soon produce peace, one way or the other.

Strategy’s STRC Hits Trading Volume Record

If you’re curious as to what’s driving Bitcoin’s price, look no further than Strategy’s STRC product. Yesterday, April 13th, STRC printed $1.16B in trading volumes, which is the stock’s strongest single-day performance ever.

Notably, 100% of yesterday’s traded shares were swapped at the $100 par value or above. And Strategy’s STRC ATM program only triggers when shares are traded at par value or higher. Meaning, Strategy was able to fully deploy their ATM yesterday.

Therefore, it’s estimated that the company generated $796M in ATM proceeds to purchase approximately 10.8K BTC — which is 2,408% higher than the miners’ daily production.

For context, the week of April 6th – 12th generated $1B in ATM proceeds. That was the company’s second-ever billion dollar week . . . but Strategy just cleared that in one day.

X’s Head of Product Teases “Crypto” Launch

Late last night, X’s Head of Product Nikita Bier posted: “Crypto has had a rough year. Maybe we should launch something to fix it.” The post has 2.3M views in Tuesday’s early morning hours.

So what exactly is happening here? Well, X Money is set to launch within the next two weeks. Musk has described X Money as a payments system that includes peer-to-peer transfers, bank deposits, a debit card, and cashback rewards in partnership with Visa.

Importantly, X Money has always been depicted as a fiat-based service, and no crypto features have ever been confirmed. However, three weeks ago, X hired Benji Taylor, the former Chief Product Officer at Aave and Head of Design at Base. And it was Nikita Bier who pushed for Taylor’s hiring.

So it’s this hiring, plus Bier’s X post 12 hours ago, that’s rightfully making people speculate that some sort of crypto integration will be included in the X Money launch.

PUMP Longs Open Now

If Saylor is going to keep pumping Bitcoin (and by extension, the rest of the crypto markets), then we like longs on PUMP at current prices. A true DEGEN trade.

PUMP looks bottomed out here, the asset continues to hold $0.00167, and the buy-back mechanism is burning tokens. So all we need now are some buyers to push this thang back up to the 200D EMA (i.e. $0.0027) or the top of the channel (i.e. $0.0033), which are our take profit levels.

Want to reach 157K+ crypto investors?