US Yields Push Higher

Chart of the Day — US Bonds Hit 22 Year ATH
Trade of the Day — Bitcoin Long Open Now
Alpha Leaks — Chainlink, Hyperliquid, Micron, & Robinhood
News Roundup — US Yields, Institutional Buying, & This Week's Economic Prints

US Bonds Hit 22 Year ATH

We’re back to the US 30-year on the monthly chart. Yesterday, this long bond hit 5.58%, which is the highest yield since 2004.

Now yields and prices move inversely to each other. So as yields rise, prices fall. And falling prices mean that investors are demanding more compensation to lend the US government money for 30 years.

And that higher required compensation opens up a whole can of macro worms. But for now, let’s focus on the proximate causes, what it means for the Fed’s October 28th rate decision, and how all of this affects our markets. So proceed to today’s top story for that discussion.

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US Yields Push Higher

As shown in the Chart of the Day above, the US 30-year hit 5.58% yesterday, which is the highest yield since 2004. And this isn’t some obscure bond-market headline. Rather, it’s the number one issue in macro investing right now. And that’s because rising yields increase the cost of debt for the US government and her citizens, tighten financial conditions, influence the Fed’s rate decision, and impact the prices of Bitcoin, crypto and the stock market.

Now the reasons for why yields are pushing higher now is the same mix we laid out a month ago (when the 30-year first tagged 5.33%), just louder:

● investors remain concerned about the US’ budget deficits and national debt,

● US treasuries are having to compete with AI bonds for the same investor capital,

● inflation remains above the 2% target; and,

● continued conflict with Iran is only making inflation worse.

And it’s the inflation issues that will most influence the Fed’s October 28th meeting. Now to be clear, the Fed sets the short-term rate (not the 30-year), but when long yields are rising on inflation concerns, a rate hold starts to look like the Fed is behind the curve, which then tends to push the long end even higher! Therefore, expect another 25 bps hike to 4.00% – 4.25% at this next meeting (e.g. the CME FedWatch currently puts the odds of an October hike at 70%).

Now what about our stocks, dog coins, and BTC? Well, yesterday’s bloody numbers across the board likely stemmed in part from tightening financial conditions, the higher opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets, and the market pricing in a rate hike now. So perhaps we’re getting the pain over with early, and we won’t get a dump when / if the hike happens, similar to how we didn’t get a dump last time.

Continued ETF and Institutional Buying

Despite the bearish macro backdrop (i.e. rising yields, another hike in play), the US spot ETFs and corporate treasury companies are still scooping up coins. So here’s the latest on all of that:

● Spot Bitcoin ETFs: They actually flipped positive for all of 2026, after $2.4B in inflows last week. In fact, last week’s numbers were the strongest since October 2025. Current year-to-date net inflows are now roughly $1B.

● Strategy: Bought another 1,665 BTC last week for $142.7M. Total stack is now 847,666 BTC. Average cost per coin is $75K.

● Strive: Bought 1,107 BTC last week for $94.5M. Total stack is now 27,462 BTC. Strive is now the fifth largest BTC treasury company, propelled by the popular SATA perpetual preferred product.

● Corporate Treasuries: The top 100 public treasuries now hold a total of 1.273M coins, which comprises 6.3% of Bitcoin’s current circulating supply.

Overall, the ETFs and corporations remain Bitcoin’s largest catalysts, and the persistent bid from these players is the cleanest explanation for why this cycle has substantially deviated from the four year bear market script.

This Week’s Economic Prints

Consider this an extension of the bond story above. Higher yields are influencing the Fed’s October 28th decision, and this week’s data releases will either feed into that or take some pressure off the US central bank.

Here’s the numbers to watch for this week:

● Core PCE Price Index (Wednesday, 8:30 am ET): The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, stripping out food and energy. YoY previous was 3.3%, forecast is 3.4%. MoM previous was 0.2%, forecast is 0.3%.

● GDP (Wednesday, 8:30 am ET): Q2 growth, quarter-over-quarter. Previous was 1.5%, forecast is 1.5%.

● S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Thursday, 9:45 am ET): Factory-sector economic health. Above 50 means expansion. Previous was 57, forecast is 57.

● ISM Manufacturing PMI (Thursday, 10:00 am ET): Same idea as directly above. Previous was 54.6, forecast is 55.0.

● Nonfarm Payrolls (Friday, 8:30 am ET): Monthly change in employer payrolls, excluding farming. Previous was 162K, the forecast is 98K.

● Unemployment Rate (Friday, 8:30 am ET): Share of the labor force that’s unemployed. Previous was 4.1%, forecast is 4.1%.

These prints sit between last month’s rate hike and the October 28th decision. Soft labor or cooler PCE prints can be the path to lower hike odds, while hot PCE or strong job numbers will do the opposite.

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