Polymarket and Kalshi Want a Slice of the Perps Pie

Chart of the Day — BTC RSI sends a signal
Trade of the Day — HYPE in the channel
Alpha Leaks — Trump DeFi platform sued
News Roundup — DeFi hacked again
Degen Play — Is the low in at Opendoor?

Did BTC RSI Mark the Bottom?

As mentioned in the previous newsletter, it’s all eyes on BTC to see whether the four-year cycle holds, or whether that pattern is broken (as would be the case if the bear market lows are already in).

Possibly backing up the case for the latter scenario–that the lows are behind us–is RSI on the weekly. Looking back, when RSI bounced out of deeply oversold territory in 2018, it signalled that the lows were in.

On the other hand, in 2022, a similar bounce was followed later in the year by a deeper price dip, but RSI right now looks closer to 2018–it’s taken a very sharp upturn as BTC rallies towards the 80Ks.

HYPE Takes the Stairs

Take a look at the HYPE chart from February until now, and you can see it taking the stairs back up from the mid-20s to its current price around $41, with a local high of $45.8 earlier this month.

It’s been making higher lows and higher highs and appears to be ascending in a clear channel, while RSI is currently far from the extremes.

So can it be as easy as just trading the channel? Nothing is guaranteed, and it depends partly on whether BTC can maintain momentum, but at the moment, HYPE looks like a long opportunity, with an initial price target in the 45 to 50 range–between that recent local high and the top of the channel. Alternatively, a breakdown below the bottom of the channel is a sign to exit the trade.

Stop Missing the Trades That Change Lives

Know the Big Trades Before They Hit

While most people are drowning in noise, a quiet group of investors already knows what's coming. They've got the research, the setups, and the edge.

This is the Inner Circle. We cut through the chaos and help deliver real signal.

Start your 7-day free trial right now — and discover what you've been missing.

Kalshi and Polymarket Plan Perps Trading

Polymarket this week posted confirmation on X that it is launching perps trading on both crypto and stocks, stating directly, “perps are coming to Polymarket”. There’s no specific launch date as yet, but you can sign up for early access on the Polymarket website.

At the same time, Polymarket’s main prediction market rival Kalshi is also heading in the same direction. That’s according to a new report in The Information, which explains that Kalshi is planning to launch crypto perps trading, possibly with stocks to follow, although again, there is currently still no firm launch date.

Volo Hacked as DeFi Reels

In yet another blow for the credibility of DeFi, Sui-based protocol Volo announced on Tuesday that it has been the victim of an exploit, with around $3.5 million dollars worth of assets stolen from its vaults.

Vaults are now frozen to prevent further loss, while the remaining $28 million in platform TVL remains secure. The protocol also explained that it is “​​prepared to absorb this loss”, so it’s to be hoped that users will not lose funds.

This hack might not be on the same scale as the recent exploits of Drift Protocol and Kelp DAO, in which a combined total of approaching $600 million worth of assets was stolen, but it comes while DeFi is still reeling from those attacks, and reinforces that DeFi in its current state should be used only with extreme caution.

And as for the Drift attack, there was some positive news around fund recovery, as Arbitrum announced that it had frozen around $70 million of ETH connected to the exploit, although at the same time, this puts the issue of decentralization–or rather a lack of genuine decentralization–squarely in the spotlight.

Tax-Free Crypto Access Restored in the UK

There’s good news for British investors looking for optimized crypto exposure, as investment platform Stratiphy is now offering UK investors a tax-free way to buy crypto ETNs.

This is achieved through an Innovative Finance ISA (IFISA) providing access to 21Shares crypto products, which is notable because crypto ETNs this year stopped qualifying for Stocks and Shares ISAs and could only be held in an IFISA instead, but at the same time, there was no available IFISA with crypto exposure.

However, as Stratiphy has now gained IFISA approval from the British financial authorities, it can fill this gap in the market, and retail investors again have a viable tax-free crypto route.

OPEN Back in Bullish Territory

Real estate play Opendoor (OPEN) was one of last year’s more interesting stock trades, rallying from below $1 to almost $12 in just a few months, as the company went through a major overhaul, bringing in Kaz Nejatian from Shopify as its new CEO (alongside many other new personnel), and leaning heavily into the AI narrative.

Price has been in a downtrend since, dropping close to the $4 mark, but from a zoomed-out perspective, it’s looking like the bottom may now be in. OPEN has risen back above $5 and is now holding above the 200-day moving average, so this looks like a good speculative hold from here.

However, if the 200-day MA is lost again, there could be further bearish action, so that’s a key indicator to trade around.

Want to reach 154K+ crypto investors?