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SpaceX IPO Good or Bad for Bitcoin?
Analysts are split on whether the SpaceX IPO will be good or bad for Bitcoin’s price in the short term. The most anticipated IPO in history lands this Friday and it’s targeting the highest valuation ever at $1.75T.
The Bull Case for Bitcoin
Market-maker Wintermute noted this week that a strong SpaceX debut would signal that risk-on sentiment is alive and well, and that sentiment might positively spillover into Bitcoin and other “risk assets”.
Another factor to consider is that SpaceX holds 18.7K BTC, which places the company in the top-10 of all BTC public treasuries. So a blowout IPO could create a powerful association for Bitcoin, as one of the world’s most innovative companies sees real value in holding it.  The Bear Case for Bitcoin
The flip side, per Wintermute, is some investors might be tempted to liquidate their Bitcoin in order to pile into the IPO. To support this speculation, Wintermute says they’ve recently seen investors selling BTC on their OTC desk and moving into stocks.
Another potential bearish catalyst is simply that the IPO explodes on the launch pad. The logic goes that if the IPO fails, it could seriously hurt the tech-heavy US markets, which in turn might drag Bitcoin down.
My View: Analysts are Missing the Forest for the Trees
I’ll take a contrarian position: the SpaceX IPO will neither be good nor bad for Bitcoin.
Bitcoin is currently marching to its own 4-year cycle drum (as the data clearly shows), and the forces propelling this cycle have long pre-dated this IPO. Moreover, Bitcoin and SpaceX are two completely separate assets, with different use-cases and value propositions. They don’t compete for the same capital bucket, and treating them like they do misses the bigger picture of Bitcoin entirely.
Hyperliquid Looking Bullish AF
We just cannot unsee the bullish catalysts for Hyperliquid and HYPE. Here’s what we’re currently focused on:  ● DEX Factory: Per our Alpha Leaks section above, Kinetiq is launching a platform (tomorrow) that lets anyone launch their own HIP-3 perps exchange. And then there’s Nansen’s own Hyperliquid powered perps platform that launches today. All of this increases HYPEs demand and validates the underlining technology.
● Spot US HYPE ETFs: Three ETFs have thus far launched. They’re pulling in millions to tens of millions per day.
● USDC Revenue-Share Deal: As we reported last month, Hyperliquid agreed to make USDC their native stablecoin, in exchange for Coinbase and Circle agreeing to pay Hyperliquid 90% of the interest yield generated from the USDC sitting on the platform. What do you think Coinbase and Circle must believe about Hyperliquid’s longevity, given they struck such a deal?
● HIP-4 Prediction Markets: Since launching in May, users can now trade perps and predictions from a single account. This no doubt puts tremendous pressure on Polymarket and Kalshi.
● Non-KYC Everything DEX + Aggressive Buybacks: The big picture catalyst. We believe that non-KYC Everything DEXs are the future. And when you combine that with Hyperliquid buybacks (i.e. generating ~$1B in annualized trading fees, of which 99% is recycled into HYPE buybacks), then it’s very hard to not see how HYPE isn’t a long-term winner.
Overall, the use-case of Hyperliquid is powerful and undeniable. This makes us bullish on HYPE for the long haul. HYPE is most-likely one of the few alts that not only survives, but thrives.
This Week’s Key US Economic Data
Last week was mostly employment and economic data. This week, it’s all about inflation. Here’s this week’s key US data releases.  ● CPI for May (Tomorrow, 8:30 am ET): Government’s main gauge of consumer inflation. CPI tracks average price changes in a fixed basket of goods and services. Hotter-than-expected prints reinforce the Fed’s wait-and-see stance on cuts. Forecast is 0.5% MoM / 4.2% YoY (vs April’s 0.6% MoM / 3.8% YoY).
● Core CPI for May (Tomorrow, 8:30 am ET): Same gauge, but food and energy prices are stripped out. Forecast is 0.3% MoM / 2.9% YoY (vs April’s 0.4% MoM / 2.8% YoY).
● PPI for May (Thursday, 8:30 am ET): Producer-side inflation gauge that measures cost changes at the wholesale level. Hot prints reduce the odds of a cut. Forecast is 0.7% MoM / no forecast for YoY (vs April’s 1.4% MoM / 6% YoY).
● Core PPI for May (Thursday, 8:30 am ET): Same gauge excluding food and energy. Forecast is 0.5% MoM / no forecast for YoY (vs April’s 1% MoM / 5.2% YoY).
● Initial Jobless Claims (Thursday, 8:30 am ET): Weekly snapshot of new unemployment filings. Lower claims signal a strong job market, which reduces the odds of a cut. Consensus is 225K (even with last week’s 225K).
Remember that the majority of last week’s employment and economic data figures came in above expectations (i.e. strong labor market, strong economic output). Therefore, if this week’s inflation figures come in hot, it probably pushes asset prices down, because the Fed will have zero reasons to cut, per their dual mandate.
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