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●  IN THIS ISSUE

Chart of the Day — BTC ETF cost basis comes into play.
Trade of the Day — Where Next for SNDK?
Alpha Leaks — MRNA and BE both take a hit this week.
News Roundup — SOL quantum proposals, SPCX/TSLA merger, and lab-made gold.

●  CHART OF THE DAY

BTC Near ETF Cost Basis

This Glassnode chart shows how Bitcoin was trading very close to the $81.5K BTC ETF cost basis, while the chart’s other measures–the average cost bases of active investors and recent buyers–sit lower, at around $77.6K and $74.8K, respectively.

And as BTC has now dropped below the ETF cost basis, those mid-70K levels may start to act as near-term price magnets, with these various cost bases indicating key battleground areas.

●  TRADE OF THE DAY

SNDK at a Key Level - Sponsored by Kalshi

This trade is brought to you with the support of Kalshi Perpetuals, where users–including in the US–can trade perps with up to 39x leverage. PLUS: Use our sign-up link and trade at least $50 in perps volume, and you’ll be entered into a $500 giveaway, with one winner picked this Sunday.

Technically, SNDK looks vulnerable after dipping below its 200D SMA before closing back above it. The sustained decline from the late-September high, alongside bearish MACD, suggests further downside, although RSI near 30 leaves scope for a bounce.

Consider a short around $1,220 after a daily close below that level, ideally followed by a failed retest from below. Stop Loss at $1,300, first Take Profit around $1,100, and second at $1,000.

On the other hand, a daily close above $1,300, followed by a retest that holds as support, would offer an aggressive long entry around that level. Stop Loss at $1,220, first Take Profit at $1,400, and second at $1,550.

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●  ALPHA LEAKS
OPENAI · STOCK

Private investors are close to agreeing an investment of up to $30 billion in OpenAI, according to a CNBC report. The deal would give OpenAI a $1.25 trillion pre-money valuation ahead of its anticipated stock-market listing.

HSBC · STOCK

HSBC has introduced RedCoin (RCHKD), a Hong Kong dollar stablecoin, through PayMe, its payments app. Wallet activation will roll out over the coming days, enabling transfers and payments.

MRNA · STOCK

Leaked results for Moderna and Merck’s in-development cancer vaccine sent MRNA down as much as 26% intraday on Thursday, with shares closing 17.6% lower and holding around the level at the end of the week. The data showed a 42% level of efficacy, below the 49% reported in an earlier trial.

BE · STOCK

Fuel-cell maker Bloom Energy fell nearly 12% in Friday morning trading, despite beating Q3 earnings and revenue forecasts. Adjusted EPS was $0.94 versus $0.69 expected, revenue reached $1.24 billion versus $1.07 billion expected, and management raised full-year guidance for the third consecutive quarter.

V · STOCK

Crypto infrastructure provider Fireblocks has denied reports that Visa is in $2.5 billion talks to acquire the company.

AERO · CRYPTO

Aerodrome and Velodrome now operate as Aero, a single decentralised exchange live on seven networks, including Ethereum, Base, Arbitrum, and Robinhood Chain. Existing AERO and VELO holders can convert their tokens to a new, upgraded AERO token.

MORPHO · CRYPTO

Lending protocol Morpho now supports USDG borrowing against some Robinhood Stock Tokens, while other apps can also integrate these lending markets.

●  NEWS ROUNDUP

Solana Quantum-Proof Plans

Solana developers have outlined Quantumglow, a proposal to protect the network against any future quantum-computer attacks while retaining the speed introduced by its recent Alpenglow upgrade.

In case you missed it, Alpenglow was activated this week and improves finality speeds, reducing settlement delays and allowing for near-instant onchain transactions.

As for the quantum threat, a sufficiently powerful quantum computer could potentially break the cryptography behind validator signatures, allowing attackers to steal funds by faking payment confirmations. While current quantum computers cannot perform these attacks, there are concerns over whether this hazard could become a reality.

Quantumglow proposes addressing this kind of vulnerability through hash-based signatures designed to resist quantum attacks, alongside changes to how validators authenticate blocks and establish agreement.

Anza, the Solana engineering firm behind the proposal, states that these changes can be made while preserving Alpenglow’s speed, although the design remains in the research stage right now.

Musk Has Final Say on SpaceX/Tesla Merger

Elon Musk may–officially at least–be required to stay out of SpaceX/Tesla merger talks, but any deal would still require his go-ahead. This is spelled out in SpaceX’s October 22 quarterly report, which explains that besides the company’s special committee and board, its controlling shareholder–meaning Elon Musk–would have to grant approval.

Although Musk’s conflict of interests removes him from discussions, he appears to back a merger and, critically, he controls a majority of SpaceX votes–around 85%–through the company’s share structure.

With both companies now examining a potential deal through their respective specially-formed committees, besides Musk giving the final approval at SpaceX, a merger would require yes votes from more than half of all outstanding Tesla shares (rather than just half of the shares whose owners participate in the vote), which is, according to Musk, “quite a high hurdle”.

Tesla’s annual meeting takes place at the beginning of December, so it’s going to take a while from here for this one to play out.

Fusion Tech Makes Alchemy Real

A San Francisco fusion startup called Marathon Fusion has made a remarkable announcement, stating that it has turned mercury into gold, which sounds very much like real-life alchemy to us. But does this mean you need to dump your physical gold? Well, not yet.

Marathon Fusion’s approach requires enriched mercury that costs around $15,000 per milligram, which is about 100,000x more than the price of gold, currently around $135 per gram. Plus, the fusion-engineered gold is radioactive and needs up to 18 years in storage before sale, so… the numbers just don’t add up.

Still though, lab-grown diamonds have shown how tech breakthroughs can impact a once-untouchable traditional market, and if enhanced, AI-assisted methods come along, then who knows? Perhaps the mercury-to-gold conversion technique starts to become commercially viable.

It’s a technology worth following, but don’t forget that Bitcoin can never be alchemically duplicated, and there will only ever be a maximum of 21 million coins.

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