Trump’s Iran Deadline in T-Minus 11 Hours

Chart of the Day — Brent Crude: World's Most Important Chart
Trade of the Day — Feels Like a Major Bitcoin Move is Coming
Alpha Leaks — Hyperliquid, Kinetiq & Tech Stock Earnings
News Roundup — Iran Deadline, Key Economic Events & BTC Participants Making Moves
Degen Play — Shorting Tesla

Brent Crude: World's Most Important Chart

Arguably the world’s most important price chart right now — Brent crude futures, which is the price of crude oil coming out of the North Sea. It’s the reference for roughly two-thirds of the world’s oil markets.

Currently, Brent crude futures are priced at $110 per barrel. Now the general rule of thumb is when prices remain above $100 for an extended period of time (i.e. months), damage to the global economy begins to compound. Prices above $120 are when global recessions are on the table. And above $150 is when the damage becomes severe.

Expect serious volatility depending on what happens this evening at 8:00 pm EST.

Feels Like a Major Bitcoin Move is Coming

It certainly feels like we’re at the end of the road here for Bitcoin, and it’s decision time. We’ve got a dynamic trade setup on this rising wedge, and Bitcoin’s future direction likely depends on the outcome of Trump’s deadline tonight.

Therefore, while the technicals tell us a lot, the truth is Bitcoin’s short-term price is probably dependent on geo-political developments that none of us can predict.

If we get a ceasefire announcement, I like longs at support with a take-profit at the top of this wedge at $78K. If Trump backs down, longs make sense, but maybe look to cut the trade much earlier (i.e. $72K - $73K). If no deal is reached, and Trump follows through on his threats, I think shorting makes sense with a take-profit at $55K.

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Trump’s Iran Deadline in T-Minus 11 Hours

Trump is demanding that Iran agree to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz by 8:00 pm EST tonight. If they don’t, Trump’s threat is major strikes on Iranian power plants and bridges (i.e. possible war crime under international law).

Iran’s response is if Trump makes good on these threats, the Iranians will respond in-kind to infrastructure across the GCC region.

Essentially, both sides are playing a very high stakes game of chicken, with human lives and the global economy hanging in the balance.

We see three probable paths forward tonight:

● Ceasefire: Markets rally hard.

● Trump Backs Off: Markets have a slight rally.

● Bombing Begins: Markets dump hard.

We’re not sure what happens, but it’s worth noting that Trump’s deadline originally started on March 21st. The US leader has extended it multiple times since, accompanied by a dizzying number of escalatory and de-escalatory statements.

Multiple Key Economic Events this Week

Trump’s Iran deadline is by far the most consequential to happen this week, but there’s several other important economic events occurring that give us an idea on where the US and global economy is headed — and by extension, risk assets.

● ISM Services PMI (Monday): US service sector economic gauge. March expectation was 54.8, but the print came in at 54.0. Meaning, the US services sector is still expanding, but at a slower pace.

● FOMC Minutes (Wednesday): The Fed’s March 17-18th meeting details. Watch for new color on how officials are weighing inflation risks, labor market strength, and the path forward for interest rates.

● February PCE Price Index (Thursday): Measures cost of US goods and services — it’s the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. February’s core PCE expectation is 3.0% YoY.

● March CPI Index (Friday): Measures price changes on a fixed basket of US goods and services. Expectation is 3.2% YoY for headline CPI. February’s print was 2.4%. The possible increase is attributed to the Iran conflict.

While the above is somewhat technical, becoming more comfortable with the meanings and outcomes will better help you navigate these markets, and you’ll be ahead of 95% of the retail market.

Bitcoin’s Market Participants are Making Moves

Big money is on the move in Bitcoin this week, with participants seemingly preparing for both short-term volatility and the long game. Here’s what’s happening:

● Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $471M in net inflows yesterday — the largest single-day inflow in six weeks. Analysts call it a clear sign of renewed institutional confidence.

● A Bitcoin Whale moved roughly 300 BTC (worth over $20M) to Binance today. The same wallet had accumulated 513 BTC between January and March 2025, so the whale is likely in unrealized losses here. The $20M dollar question is if these losses will soon become realized.

● Strategy bought another 4,871 BTC last week for $330M, mostly funded via STRC sales. Strategy now holds 766,970 BTC — roughly 3.8% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply.

Taken together, these moves show that institutions are accumulating long-term, while some large players might be preparing for another shorter-term leg down in prices.

Shorting Tesla

Shorting TSLA at current prices (i.e. $352) is your DEGEN Play of the Day. Now we got our triangle breakdown in late January, but the reason I think there’s more downside to go is because of this nasty descending grind that the stock price currently caught within.

Channels like this (whether to the upside or downside) signal that more of the same is what’s likely to come, just faster. So in TSLA’s case, I’m thinking that we’re due for a significant drop soon. I think reasonable take profits here are at $300.

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