Brace for Major Tech Earnings

Chart of the Day — Nasdaq Breaking Support
Trade of the Day — Longing Uniswap — Sponsored by Kalshi
Alpha Leaks — Aerodrome, Kinetiq, & Lighter
News Roundup — Tech Earnings, Quantum Update, & BlackRock's PBIT ETF

Nasdaq Breaking Support

Our premium subscribers will recognize this chart as the Nasdaq. We’ve been monitoring this index closely for these last several weeks, and we’re interested in how it responds to this ascending triangle in the final run-up to the November US mid-terms.

As of today’s early morning trading hours, you can see that the index is now holding this triangle’s former support as resistance at 29.8K. We’re also getting resistance confluence from the 50D SMA at that same price level. Additionally, take a look at the MACD. Both the MACD and signal lines are crossing below the zero line now, so that’s signaling increased momentum to the downside.

Moving forward. keep an eye on the Nasdaq as we move through major tech stock earnings this week (see Alpha Leaks and the first news story below), the Fed’s rate decision next week, and the US mid-terms the week after next. Clearly, there’s a lot headed our way, and tracking the Nasdaq will give us better insights as to where crypto might be headed.

Longing Uniswap — Sponsored by Kalshi

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Now, we’ve been nailing our UNI calls, and we’re hoping to keep that going here. UNI has significantly pulled back from its local high at $11, and now the asset is flipping prior resistance into support in the lower $7s. You’ll also notice that we’re holding just above the 0.7 fib now, when running a higher low / higher high fib analysis. Finally, UNI is consolidating inside a tight pennant now, so if the asset breaks above this pennant at $7.50, then we like going long here.

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Brace for Major Tech Earnings

Some major tech stock earnings are dropping this week, and the numbers will likely set the direction for both the stock and crypto markets over the short-term. Other than the potential for more Fed rate hikes, the biggest overhang on the US tech sector remains the question on whether the AI build-out is in a bubble. So these reports should offer additional clues with regards to that.

Besides the earnings we highlighted in the Alpha Leaks section above, here are the heavy hitters to monitor:

● SpaceX [SPCX] reports Q3 2026 after the close today. Consensus EPS is $0.15 on $12.9B in revenue. The balance sheet gives a read on AI demand from the supplier side, since SpaceX sells compute to the frontier labs. Its AI segment posted a $1.3B operating loss in Q2, so watch whether that figure has improved.

● Meta Platforms [META] reports Q3 tomorrow after the close. Consensus EPS is $6.58 on $63.3B in revenue. The results will show how much return Meta is getting on its AI compute spend, given that the company buys capacity and tries to turn it into higher engagement and ad views.

● Tesla [TSLA] also reports Q3 tomorrow after the close. Consensus EPS is $0.44 on $27.9B in revenue. The print provides a longer-term update on physical and applied AI, given Tesla’s investments in fully automated driving and Optimus. Capex levels and future spending guidance will show how aggressively it is funding those segments.

Together, the three reports cover the AI story from the supplier, buyer, and physical/applied sides. Expect stocks and crypto to move based on how the numbers print.

Google’s New Quantum Breakthrough Puts Bitcoin Back in the Crosshairs

Late last week, Google said its quantum “Willow” chip can now prepare special quantum states at roughly 40 times fewer errors than before. The results were published in Science.

These states, called “magic states”, are consumed during certain operations and must be produced continuously. Older methods required a large share of quantum computer hardware just to make them. But Google’s new approach, called cultivation, basically leaves more of the machine free for actually running calculations.

Therefore, the news here is that Google has made progress on one of quantum’s hardware bottlenecks.

Now, a sufficiently large quantum computer running Shor’s algorithm could, in theory, reverse a Bitcoin public key into its private key. This would be devastating to the protocol, but a practical attack on Bitcoin still looks distant. Current quantum devices remain far below the hundreds of thousands of high-quality logical qubits that’s needed to crack public key addresses. Moreover, Coinbase and other institutions have already begun work on post-quantum signature schemes and migration paths for existing holdings.

At the same time, quantum resource estimates have been revised lower, and the oldest coins have had their public keys exposed for over a decade. This combination keeps the issue relevant even if a successful break remains unlikely.

BlackRock Launches Downside-Protected Bitcoin ETF

Yesterday, BlackRock filed with the SEC paperwork for the iShares Bitcoin Managed Protect ETF. The new ETF seeks somewhat limited upside exposure to Bitcoin, while aiming to provide a tighter degree of downside protection. The proposed ticker is PBIT.

PBIT is able to achieve this downside-protected BTC exposure with options. Basically, the ETF buys and sells sets of Bitcoin call options in revolving monthly tranches. The purchased call options are at strikes about 10% below Bitcoin’s current market price. This helps create roughly 10% max downside exposure (on that specific tranche). The sold call options are at strikes significantly higher than Bitcoin’s current market price. This combination creates long exposure on Bitcoin; but again, the ETF’s upside is somewhat limited because the sold calls act as an appreciation ceiling. Additionally, the premiums collected on the sold calls help pay for the purchased options.

That’s the general overview for how this new product works.

Count PBIT as yet another addition to Wall Street’s Bitcoin product set. BlackRock already runs IBIT, the largest spot Bitcoin ETF with more than $65B in assets, and the Bitcoin Premium Income ETF, which sells calls for monthly income. The Bitcoin Managed Protect ETF adds buffered long exposure that trades some upside potential for a tighter defined floor.

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