$370 Billion in Cash: What Buffett Sees Coming for Markets

Chart of the Day — Where is the BTC buy zone?
Trade of the Day — SOL lining up an important move
Alpha Leaks — Ark ETFs add pre-IPO AI exposure
News Roundup — Buffett's view, SpaceX, & crypto 401(k) flows
Degen Play — SNAP gets the activist investor treatment

Is 54K the BTC Buy Zone?

Is there a price at which we can say BTC is definitely in the buy zone? No, not definitively, but the BTC realized price is a useful measure for identifying value. This metric reveals the bitcoin market’s cost basis, and according to CryptoQuant, it currently sits at $54K. That means that below that price we have something like full capitulation and BTC can be considered cheap.

Now, a few caveats here: BTC might not fall that low, or it might potentially fall much lower, plus we can’t know how long it might stay at that level (previous dips below have lasted from 7 to 301 days).

That said though, it’s a useful point to track, and if price does reach that area, then long-term accumulation–or ramped up accumulation if you’re already DCA-ing–makes a lot of sense.

SOL Still Heavy

SOL is below both the 21-day EMA and the 50-day EMA, with MACD back into bearish territory, while the current support zone holding for several weeks means the next move from here is important.

The bearish setup is a short on a failed bounce into around $85, or on a daily close below $79, and downside targets are $75 first, then $70 and below if a selloff accelerates.

A bullish setup comes into play if SOL reclaims $85.50 and holds above it, putting price back above the 21-day EMA. In that case, a long entry can target $90 and above.

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Buffett Not Buying (Yet)

Investing legend Warren Buffett has given his current view of the markets in a new interview with CNBC. This comes with Berkshire Hathaway sitting on around a $370 billion cash pile after thirteen consecutive quarters of selling, and the key points presented by Buffett were:

● The current stock market sell-off “is nothing”. Buffett put today’s market situation in context by stating, “3 times since I've taken over Berkshire, it's gone down more than 50%”.

● He would rather have cash deployed (“cash is not a good asset”) *if a good opportunity is there*.

● He can’t predict how the war in the Middle East will play out (and neither can anyone else).

The main takeaways then? In Buffett’s view, stocks are still expensive, there is the potential for a much deeper drawdown, and it’s not yet the moment to deploy cash, *but* he is ready to move when the time is right, while investors must adapt to global uncertainty.

And the other important point here is that we’re all trading the exact same market, regardless of portfolio size, so Buffett’s analysis applies market-wide for all investors.

Crypto Edges Closer to 401(k) Plans

The US Department of Labor has proposed a rule that would make it easier for 401(k) plans to include crypto, plus also private equity, real estate, and other alternative assets, all alongside traditional stocks and bonds.

Proposed changes would remove legal uncertainty when evaluating crypto and alternative investments. Effectively, that means putting crypto on a level playing field, and allowing plan managers to assess all assets according to the same criteria.

This still faces a public comment period and legal scrutiny, so don’t expect immediate adoption–it’s all part of the long game. However if crypto enters the 401(k) infrastructure, that’s a huge future tailwind, as crypto assets can potentially receive the kinds of price-agnostic, passive flows that have powered equity index funds for decades.

IPO Anticipation Ramps Up

SpaceX is perhaps the most highly anticipated of the big IPOs lining up for later this year, and yesterday it emerged that the company has filed confidentiality with the SEC for a June listing, which would put it ahead of the other incoming mega-IPOs, OpenAI and Anthropic.

Meanwhile, when it comes to those two AI firms, it’s being reported–per Bloomberg–that OpenAI pre-IPO shares are becoming difficult to sell on the secondary market. Apparently, investors are shifting focus towards Anthropic instead, citing a better risk-reward as Anthropic is currently valued at $380 billion, as compared to OpenAI’s $852 billion valuation.

SNAP Back?

Snap (SNAP) got a wake-up call this week after activist investor Irenic Capital Management disclosed a stake and fired off a letter to Snap CEO Evan Spiegel explaining that the company needs a strategic overhaul, causing the stock to pop 14%.

Irenic's thesis is that with Snap worth around $7 billion today, the right moves can revalue it to $35 billion, giving a 5x upside. The proposed playbook includes cutting headcount, spinning off or killing the company’s AR glasses unit, leaning harder into AI, and buying back stock, while for context, Snap trades at 1.2x revenue right now, versus Meta's 5.2x.

As for risks, Snap's share structure means that the founders still hold power, while Wall Street's average price target is around $8 (it’s under $5 now), way below Irenic's $26 vision, so the broader market isn't convinced yet.

Overall then, if the turnaround story has substance, then SNAP at a $7 billion market cap with nearly a billion monthly users is a potential deep-value play, but remember that investor activism creates volatility.

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