Trump’s Weekend War Escalation

All of that, plus...

Chart of the Day — The SPY has turned bearish
Trade of the Day — Will Strategy break out of its bullish triangle?
Alpha Leaks — A shock announcement from Adobe
News Roundup — Trump escalates war, Private Credit crisis continues + BTC ETF inflows
Degen Play — Recession odds for 2026

SPY Turns Bearish

This 3-year weekly chart from Barchart of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust [SPY] has turned bearish.

After a powerful rally from around 480 in early 2023 to peaks of 682-697 in early 2026, the index has pulled back. It’s now sitting below the purple line, the 20-week moving average.

The last two weekly candles have now closed below it, a bearish signal not seen since April-May 2025. Back then, SPY dropped to a 52-week low of ~481.80 before staging a +20% comeback by late May.

As of March 13th, SPY closed at 662.29. For investors, this second consecutive close below the 20-week MA suggests the uptrend may be weakening, raising risks of further correction or deeper pullback.

Watch the key support at 640-650. A failure there could accelerate downside pressure. Bulls need a quick and solid reclaim above the MA to take back control. Or else…we’re going down.

Strategy Attempts To Break Bullish Triangle

Strategy [MSTR] broke out from its February lows to trade back near the $140 mark this week, given Bitcoin’s recent moves back towards $72K.

MSTR is now attempting to overcome the upper resistance of a bullish triangle. If Bitcoin continues up from here, MSTR will likely too.

In the short-term, we are looking for momentum to continue and for a break of the $155 price. Once that level has cleared, the next target is $165.

However, if the US-Iran conflict escalates further, this may not happen immediately as risk on assets will likely suffer.

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Trump Escalates US-Iran War

Less than three hours after the market close on Friday, President Trump took to Truth Social to declare “one of the most powerful bombing raids in the History of the Middle East” has been carried out that “totally obliterated every MILITARY target in Iran’s crown jewel, Kharg Island."

The Kharg Island is important to Iran because it’s their oil lifeline and is where 90% of the country’s export crude oil passes through. Trump needs to get the Strait of Hormuz back open and one way to do that is to threaten not only Iran’s oil supply but their economy too.

It’s also being reported that there will be additional troops on the ground, with up to 5,000 Marines and sailors on route to the Middle East. It’s not yet clear what is being planned by the US but is a clear escalation.

And the markets ain’t going to like this come Monday.

If they stay offshore: The market might stabilize by mid-week, viewing the bombing as a "once-and-done" message.

If an onshore landing occurs: All bets are off. A ground operation on Kharg Island would be viewed as a regime-change signal, likely pushing oil toward $150 and causing a deeper correction in global equities.

Bottom Line: Monday will likely be a "flight to safety." The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are likely to open with a gap down as more uncertainty hits the market. Watch the Volatility Index [VIX]. If it spikes above 25-30, we are in for a very turbulent week.

The Private Credit Exodus Continues

Bank of America’s Michael Hartnett says the markets are starting to look like 2008. Eeek!

Because now it’s been revealed that two more private credit funds have limited withdrawals:

• Morgan Stanley: capped withdrawals at 5%, after 11% withdrawal requests

• Cliffwater: capped withdrawals at 7%, after 14% withdrawal requests

Not only that, but JP Morgan has started de-risking its private credit exposure. It’s clamping down on lending to private credit groups and marking down the value of existing loans.

Bitcoin ETFs Score 1st 5-Day Inflow Streak of 2026

For the first time in 2026, Bitcoin ETFs have seen 5-days of consecutive inflows. That’s just how volatile 2026 has been so far.

US spot Bitcoin ETFs brought in around $767 million over the five days. The strongest day of the week came on Tuesday, with $250 million worth of inflows.

The last time the ETF collective saw a similar streak was in late November 2025, after Bitcoin put in its $126K top.

Whilst inflows have been turbulent to say the least during 2026 so far, let’s not forget the ETFs still hold $91.83 billion worth of BTC.

This 5-day inflow streak is what we want to see for BTC’s price to keep moving up. However, Trump’s weekend war escalation may have brought this streak to an end.

Recession odds for 2026

Kalshi is currently pricing YES for a recession starting in 2026 at $0.35.

The play here is to Buy NO for ~$0.66. Because for this contract to resolve as YES, the official start date would need to be within the 2026 calendar year, as defined by the NBER’s technical definition of two consecutive quarters of negative GDP.

As this is a lagging indicator, it means the two consecutive quarters of negative GDP would need to begin in Q1 or Q2 for it to be officially called a recession by end of year. Because Q4’s data won’t be reported until 2027.

Whilst the FedNow’s GDP estimate for Q1 is falling, it’s still on track for 2.7%. If you believe the recession will be delayed until after the massive avalanche of IPOs like SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI, then vote NO here.

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