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Is Trump Manipulating the Markets?
Most definitely he is.
Forget inflation numbers, the four-year cycle, unemployment rates, or GDP. Right now, the number one factor moving markets is the Iran conflict — or more specifically, the precise timing of President Trump’s posts about the Iran conflict.
Let’s review the recent chronological facts:  ● Saturday, March 21st: In back-to-back posts, Trump threatened to “obliterate” Iran’s power plants unless the country opened the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours. He added that the Iranians wanted a deal, but he did not.
● Bitcoin dropped $2K immediately and hit a low of $67.3K on Sunday.
● Monday, March 23rd: Two hours before the US markets opened, Trump posted that he had instructed the Department of War to postpone any strikes on Iranian power plants for five days due to “VERY GOOD AND PRODUCTIVE CONVERSATIONS [with the Iranians] OVER THE LAST TWO DAYS.”
● Within six minutes of the post, the S&P Futures added $2T to its market cap, and Bitcoin’s price rose $3K in one 15 minute candle.
So the pattern here is obvious. Trump is keeping the US stock markets as elevated as possible by being the tough guy on the weekend and the nice guy during the work week. This allows him to apply pressure on Iran without exacting unnecessary damage on the markets. That’s his playbook.
Looking forward, the five-day strike pause ends after markets close this Friday. So expect the same rhythm: tough talk after the close → Bitcoin and cryptos drop → nice-guy messaging before Monday’s open → stocks, Bitcoin, and cryptos pump.
US Treasury Yields Might Dictate How Trump Proceeds with Iran
The real limit on how far Trump can push Iran isn’t stock prices — it’s US Treasury yields. So here’s the thesis: the bond market is setting a hard ceiling on the conflict before it triggers serious fiscal pain on US shores.
Since the Iran conflict began, the US10Y has climbed 45 basis points to 4.36%. And the reason is straightforward — surging oil prices are driving inflation fears higher, so bond investors are demanding higher yields to protect against eroded purchasing power. And analysts see 4.5% as the critical line in the sand. Above that level, borrowing costs become too expensive for a heavily indebted U.S. government and economy.  We saw the same pattern last April during the tariff escalation. When the US10Y surged past 4.50%, Trump quickly implemented a 90-day pause to bring yields back down.
So watch for the same pattern this time.
And for Bitcoin and risk assets, this is important. If yields break higher and force the Fed into QE or other liquidity measures, we could see a sharp upwards rebound in prices once the yield pressure eases, and more cash is flowing through the system.
Kalshi and Polymarket Fight Insider Trading
Kalshi and Polymarket are rolling out new rules to crack down on insider trading and market manipulation.
Here’s what’s happening: Kalshi is now blocking politicians from trading on their own elections and is using screening lists to stop athletes, coaches, and referees from betting on their own games. The platform also added a whistleblower reporting feature. And Polymarket is now explicitly banning trading on stolen information, illegal tips, or by people who can directly influence outcomes.
Why now? The platforms are getting serious heat from US regulators. Two US senators have introduced legislation to ban sports-related contracts entirely, and there’s recent companion legislation seeking to ban any contracts related to war or human fatalities.
So what’s it mean for the future of prediction markets in the US? We think they’ll continue to operate, but (1) expect them to play ball with authorities, which means stricter compliance standards, screenings, enforcement, etc., and (2) don’t be surprised if some contract categories are banned entirely.
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