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Bitcoin Breaks Below $70K. Here’s Why.
Bitcoin fell sharply below $70K in Tuesday’s early morning, reaching lows not seen since April. But while news outlets find blame from a few headline-grabbing events, Bitcoin’s primary headwind is much more fundamental to the asset itself.  Here’s the factors currently pushing prices down:
● Strategy sold 32 Bitcoin for $2.5M to help fund its preferred stock dividends. This is the company’s first sale since 2022. The sale is inconsequential relative to the company’s 843K BTC stack, but the symbolic move spooked the market. (Secondary).
● Mt. Gox transferred 10.4K BTC in apparent preparation for further creditor distributions. Mt. Gox holders acquired their coins before 2014, so expecting some selling pressure from further distributions isn’t unreasonable. (Secondary).
● Some Bitcoin-to-AI rotation might be happening as retail sells the Bitcoin fear and buys the AI euphoria. (Secondary).
● The Bitcoin ETFs have bled for the last eleven days — the longest redemption streak since launch. (Secondary).
● A key technical breakdown is happening now as Bitcoin has lost an ascending channel support line that’s been active since February. (Secondary).
● The four-year cycle continues to dominate, particularly in terms of cycle bottom-to-top-to-bottom timing. (Primary).
The most-recent headlines (i.e. Saylor, Mt. Gox, AI-rotation) undeservingly receive the market’s ire, but the market is missing the forest for the trees. The primary catalyst remains the four-year cycle, which is a mix of real supply and demand dynamics plus market psychology.
And it’s this one factor — for now — that continues to exert the most control over Bitcoin’s price movements.
MoneyGram Launches Stablecoin on Stellar (XLM)
MoneyGram has launched its own stablecoin - MGUSD - on the Stellar (XLM) blockchain.
The payments giant, serving more than 60M customers across 500K retail locations worldwide, is integrating the stablecoin directly into its app for fast, low-cost transfers and balances. The rollout starts in the U.S. with plans for a global release later.  Stellar’s native coin - XLM - reacted very positively from the news, doubling in price from trough to peak yesterday ($0.14 to $0.30). Prices have since retraced to $0.22.
Stellar’s fundamental use-case has always been real-world and cross-border payments. And XLM is used for (1) transaction fees, (2) minimum account balance reserves, and (3) DEX liquidity. However, given Stellar’s transaction fees are miniscule (0.00001 XLM per transaction), it’s an open and valid question to ask how much natural demand for XLM will be created from this MoneyGram news.
XLM’s total supply is 50B.
Important US Economic Data Incoming
Key US economic data drops this week that will likely move the markets and give us fresh clues on how the Fed might handle interest rates for the rest of 2026.  Here’s what to watch:
● JOLTS Job Openings for April (Today, 10:00am ET): Monthly snapshot of labor demand by tracking unfilled job postings. A sharp drop signals cooling demand, which gives the Fed more room to cut. Consensus is 6.9M openings (even with March’s 6.9M print).
● ADP Private Payrolls for May (Tomorrow, 8:15am ET): Private-sector jobs that precede the official Fed report. Stronger-than-expected prints indicate a resilient labor market, which lowers the odds of a cut. Consensus is +110K jobs (roughly even with April’s +109K).
● ISM Services PMI for May (Tomorrow, 9:45am ET): Key services sector gauge, which composes 70% of the US economy. Readings above 50 signal expansion. Higher reads mean less chance of a cut. Consensus is 53.9 (slightly higher than April’s 53.6).
● US Employment Report for May (Friday, 8:30am ET): The big one. US Fed nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate. The healthier the job market, the less need for a cut. Consensus is +80K payrolls (significantly down from April’s +115K), with unemployment at 4.3% (even with April).
These prints matter because they’re one of the last major data sets before the next FOMC meeting on June 17th. The Fed will in part base their monetary decisions on this data, and thus risk assets will respond to the prints.
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