Macro Pressures Bitcoin

Chart of the Day — The Plebs are Stacking
Trade of the Day — JTO Longs Open Now (SMC)
Alpha Leaks — SYRUP, ASML, NFLX, & TSMC
News Roundup — Macro Pressures Bitcoin, JTO Pump, & USG Sends Crypto to Coinbase

The Plebs are Stacking

The plebs are stacking. From Bitcoin Magazine Pro, new on-chain data shows that wallets holding 0.1 BTC or more ($6.2K minimum) are approaching new all time highs, if the current trajectory holds.

So right now, there’s 4.53M wallets that hold this minimum amount of BTC, with the all-time high being 4.58M wallets in January 2024. But the wallet count line is currently slopping up, relatively significantly. Meaning, we can likely expect a new all time high from this cohort within the next six to twelve months.

And of course, the major difference between now and 2024 is that the market structures are completely different. We’re currently in the depths of a bear market, whereas before, Bitcoin was in the early innings of a new bull market.

JTO Longs Open Now (SMC)

Longing JTO with prices around $0.66 is your Trade of the Day.

According to Smart Money Concepts, JTO is technically in a bullish market structure. The asset pulled back and touched the “optimal trade entry”, which is between the 0.6 to 0.7 fib levels, when measured from the most recent confirmed higher low ($0.40) to the suspected new higher high ($0.88). Since that touch, JTO is moving higher, so we suspect that a new uptrend might be starting now.

Go Premium for the full technical setup on JTO, with the recommended stop loss and take profit targets. Inner Circle members have been stacking wins recently, with successful Bitcoin and ZCash shorts generating real percentage gains. We’re taking positions regardless if the larger market is going up or down. Go premium today to catch our signals.

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Macro Pressures Bitcoin

Renewed inflation worries tied to the revived US-Iran conflict are putting downward pressure on Bitcoin and other risk assets. So basically, there are several interconnected macro factors working against the crypto recovery that we were getting in early July.

Let’s break down these key factors and then pull them back together.

● US CPI Print (Today, 8:30 am ET): Breaking as of 50 minutes ago, the US CPI print for June came in significantly below expectations!! YoY inflation is 3.5% (forecast 3.8%; prior 4.2%). MoM CPI is -0.4% (forecast -0.1%; prior 0.5%). And MoM core CPI is 0.0% (forecast 0.2%; prior 0.2%). This is delivering much needed relief to markets already worried about possible Fed rate hikes due to prior sticky inflation and the renewed US-Iran conflict.

● Kevin Warsh Testimony (Today, 10:00 am ET): Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is delivering his first monetary policy report testimony to Congress today. Market participants will listen carefully for any signal on the Fed’s inflation outlook and near-term rate path, especially since the odds for September rate hike are now 51%.

● Renewed US-Iran Conflict (Ongoing): President Trump has reinstated a naval blockade on all Iranian ships, and he’s demanding a 20% fee on all other cargo passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Tensions are reignited, and WTI is up 20% since early July.

These macro factors are all tightly linked. Escalating Strait of Hormuz tensions send oil higher, which increases inflation, which makes the Fed more likely to hike rates, which puts pressure on Bitcoin and risk assets.

However, the CPI print we just received is giving us a huge breath of fresh air! We needed it. Now pay attention to Warsh’s testimony for further policy signals.

Is Jito [JTO] Poised for the Pump?

We discussed Jito [JTO] in both the Trade of the Day and in the Alpha Leaks, but we thought it deserved a more thorough analysis. The question is if JTO is poised for the pump? We don’t know for certain, but both the fundamentals and technicals look promising.

On the fundamental side, Jito is launching its self-custodial trading platform - JTX - today. The platform will eventually offer spot, tokenized equities, perps, and prediction markets. More importantly, Jito has committed to using 100% of JTX revenue for JTO buybacks and burns over the next full year. This creates a direct link between platform usage and token value. Jito is currently the sixth largest Solana-based protocol by TVL ($754M) according to DefiLlama (Jupiter is first with $1.5B). So even without JTX going live, the network is already competitive within the Solana ecosystem.

From the technical side, JTO traded above $5 in 2024. So at current levels ($0.66), along with the apparent bottom ($0.21) that was printed in early 2025, the token appears to be in a longer-term bullish uptrend.

Thus, the combination of the fundamentals plus the technicals makes JTO one of the more interesting crypto setups right now. But watch the JTX launch and actual trading volumes. If that’s successful, it will further add to the bull’s case.

US Government Moves $288M in BTC & ETH to Coinbase

Speaking of downward pressure on Bitcoin, news is circulating of the US Government moving $288M in Bitcoin and Ethereum to Coinbase Prime yesterday. Specifically 3.8K in BTC and 30K in ETH were moved to the exchange. The coins in question originated from two major criminal seizures.

Now this transfer caught the crypto community off guard, because moves like this typically occur before the coins are sold in the open market, but President Trump signed an executive order in March of 2025 directing all federal agencies to not sell any seized crypto.

So what are we to make of this apparent contradiction? Well I think the two most likely explanations are that (1) the coins won’t be sold, given Coinbase Prime is also used for institutional custody, or (2) these coins are subject to one of the executive order’s exceptions, like returns to victims of related criminal cases, or equitably profit sharing with State and local law enforcement partners.

But, the idea that Trump or a US agency has decided to defy the 2025 executive order is pure nonsense. Remember that the US government still controls 324K BTC, so these 3.8K coins are a small fraction of that.

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