Bull Signal: This Is the Level BTC Must Reclaim

Chart of the Day — Robinhood Chain TVL
Trade of the Day — CRCL accumulation
Alpha Leaks — NVDA: "compute is revenue"
News Roundup — BTC bull signals, macro data, SEC crypto plans

Robinhood Chain TVL Keeps Expanding

Excluding double count (when one protocol’s TVL feeds into that of another), TVL on Robinhood Chain is continuing to rapidly expand, and has surpassed $1 billion.

Launched at the start of July, the network now has a TVL of $1.033B (although this figure will vary depending on inclusion criteria), and growth is showing no signs of letting up yet. This comes while crypto signals that the worst of the bear market may be over, adding to the case for Robinhood Chain, which appears to have timed its launch for an optimal moment.

Zoom Out on CRCL - Sponsored by Kalshi

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Today, we’re zooming out on the CRCL chart. Our view is that Circle’s cycle low may already have been made back in February–note that when BTC dipped to 57K after that, CRCL didn’t make a new low–and so structurally, CRCL is in an accumulation zone (and has been for several months).

For CRCL then, we’re looking at longer-term spot buys rather than leveraged positions. Go Premium for the full details on this ticker, along with perps setups on a range of crypto and stock trades. Inner Circle members have been profiting from our setups, so go Premium today to catch our signals.

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Is Bitcoin in a New Bull Market?

The big question in crypto is whether or not we have transitioned into a bullish market structure after around nine months of bearish price action, and a recent post from CryptoQuant makes the case that we are in fact in at the beginning of a bullish new BTC market phase.

This is based on the fact that a range of bull market signals have fired–including the MVRV Z-score, stablecoin liquidity, and trader realized price–and with both spot and futures demand increasing together.

However, it’s also apparent the bitcoin’s rapid move up caused the market to become over-heated in the short-term, and there appears to have been profit-taking around 80K from long-term holders (as shown by a drop in supply held for one year or more).

Additionally–as we’ll see in the next story, below–the latest economic data has placed pressure back on markets, and there is a key level that BTC hasn’t reached yet: if it reclaims the 365-day moving average, which currently sits at around $83K, then a bull market structure is confirmed.

PCE and GDP Data Give a Mixed Message

The latest PCE and GDP numbers appear to show growth losing momentum, while inflation remains above target.

US GDP expanded at an annualised 1.5% pace in Q2, matching forecasts but slowing from last year, which usually makes the case for dovish policy. However, July’s PCE reading landed at 3.7%, just above the 3.6% expectation and still far from the Fed’s 2% goal, although PCE has eased from 4.1% in May.

That means cutting rates can increase price pressures, but waiting too long can deepen the slowdown. This comes while there are split opinions at the Fed around rate decisions, and with markets now assigning a 38.1% probability of a September increase.

From here then, all eyes will now be on Friday’s Fed meeting at Jackson Hole, where Chairman Kevin Warsh’s remarks will shape expectations.

SEC Sends New Crypto Proposal to White House

The SEC is taking steps towards overhauling crypto custody rules, as it this week sent a proposal titled Amendments to the Custody Rules to the White House Office of Management and Budget.

The proposal is intended to clarify how investment advisers can hold digital assets on behalf of clients, and its submission has fuelled speculation that the SEC will soon modernize its crypto custody framework.

However, the actual content of the proposal has not been publicly published, leaving its exact provisions still unknown for now.

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