SPCX & TSLA Drop Q3 Numbers, Explore Merger

Chart of the Day — BTC realized cap indicates fresh capital
Trade of the Day — GOOG makes a move
Alpha Leaks — BlackRock has a new robotics ETF
News Roundup — SPCX and TSLA, PHP security scramble, OCC stablecoin rules

Fresh Capital Returning to Bitcoin

Bitcoin’s realized cap values coins at the price they last moved onchain, providing a view of the market’s total cost basis, and a rising realized cap can be interpreted as fresh capital entering bitcoin, as buyers are committing more money to acquire coins.

The green areas on this CryptoQuant chart show periods when realized cap is rising, while grey marks periods when it is flat or falling. As you can see, the current section is green again after a prolonged decline, suggesting that demand is returning.

Previously, sustained green stretches accompanied major bull runs, so this is an encouraging shift, although it’s still early days if a sustained bull market is to develop from here.

GOOG Breaks Lower - Sponsored by Kalshi

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Regular readers will know we’ve been tracking GOOG recently, so let’s update on that situation. Price was tightening in a large triangle pattern but has broken to the downside, meaning that shorts are now open.

Note also that this comes with meaningful volume on the drop, a bearish MACD crossover, and with price now below the 200D SMA, all of which support an immediately bearish view.

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SpaceX and Tesla Report Q3 While Boards Explore Merger

Elon Musk confirmed that Tesla and SpaceX are considering a merger, stating on the SpaceX earnings call this week: “Both SpaceX and Tesla have formed special committees to discuss this idea at the request of shareholders”.

As for the numbers, SpaceX Q3 revenue rose 161% YoY to $14.58 billion, with AI revenue soaring to $7.56 billion, while operating profit reached $2.79 billion, reversing a $273 million operating loss from a year earlier. Musk put potential annual recurring revenue by the end of 2027 at “somewhere between $500 billion and $1 trillion.”

Management’s nearer-term forecasts included:

● $33 - 37 billion in Q1 2027 revenue.

● $35 - 40 billion in Q4 capital spending, supporting its AI infra expansion.

● A first Terafab test chip targeted for May or June 2027, with volume production aiming for Q3 or Q4 2028 (although these dates are not certain).

And Tesla also released Q3 financial results this week. Adjusted EPS of $0.48 beat the $0.45 forecast, and free cash flow reached $1.53 billion. Revenue was flat at $28.05 billion, while operating profit fell 56% YoY.

Early production of Tesla’s Optimus humanoid robot has begun, and Musk expects external deliveries around late 2027, but stated that reaching 20,000 robots a week would take “at least a year, maybe a little longer”.

Other updates included:

● Optimus: Next-gen AI5 chips targeted for April 2027, improving on the current AI4’s computing capacity.

● Robotaxi: Dallas expansion planned for November 2026.

● Energy: Megapack grid-storage batteries are almost sold out for 2027.

● Spending: Tesla cut its 2026 CapEx forecast to approximately $20 billion, from more than $25 billion.

PHP Web Security Flaws Trigger Global Scramble

Many government websites and online services went offline around the world yesterday as operators rush to patch two critical security flaws in PHP, the programming language powering much of the web. Affected sites face data theft and server takeovers, and while emergency updates are available, abandoned or unmaintained sites may remain permanently exposed, leaving legacy databases vulnerable.

For individuals, personal data is at risk, while for businesses, there will be urgent system audits, and potential downtime. Not every PHP site is compromised, but this is a systemic vulnerability creating a very widespread threat.

To assist in shoring up security, OpenAI has pledged $1 billion in subsidized AI security access, released a PHP checker through Patch the Planet, its open-source security programme, and plans a Codex tool to help website owners find and fix vulnerable code.

OCC Finalizes Stablecoin Rules

The US Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) has finalized its GENIUS Act stablecoin framework, establishing federal standards for licensing, reserves, and oversight ahead of the January 2027 deadline.

Direct interest remains banned, but the OCC dropped plans to automatically penalize third-party reward programs. By switching to case-by-case reviews, regulators left the door open for exchange-hosted rewards, disappointing commercial banks opposed to stablecoin yields.

The final rules also boost operational flexibility, scrapping a proposed 20-day reserve maturity limit and letting issuers withdraw surplus capital at will, provided they maintain a strict 1:1 backing ratio, while anti-money laundering and sanctions compliance will be detailed in separate rulemakings.

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