Did the SEC Just Open the Crypto Floodgates?

Chart of the Day — Strategy bought all the new coins
Trade of the Day — S&P 500 set to drop?
Alpha Leaks — Hyperliquid major moves
News Roundup — SEC clarity amid macro chaos
Degen Play — SOFI short-seller drama

Does the Bitcoin Halving Still Matter?

Has Strategy made the impact of the Bitcoin halving obsolete? That’s one theory (among many, as the halving is an area of debate), and this chart posted by Grain of Salt appears to back up the case that supply issuance changes might not matter anymore, thanks in part to Strategy.

It shows that since Q4 2024, Strategy has been consuming more than the entire ongoing supply of newly mined BTC, and keep in mind that Strategy plans to keep buying forever, there are other DATs now operating, and ETFs can also hoover up coins.

S&P 500 Marks Out Possible Rounded Top

Let’s keep it simple for today’s trade setup. The S&P 500 is near the end of a rounded top pattern, it’s fast approaching the 200-day EMA, and the macro situation is not good, with economic data coming in hot while oil supply disruptions appear to be worsening in the Middle East.

That is all adding up to a short scenario, with the 200-day EMA at 6595 as the key level. Break below that, and we could be looking at a drop to 6520–the range low–and below that, the previous ATH from 2025 is at 6520.

Alternatively, holding above the moving average would invalidate the immediate short trade.

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SEC: Crypto Assets are NOT Securities

The SEC has issued a new interpretation laying out how securities laws apply to crypto, and the important part is that the Commission states that most crypto assets are not themselves securities, while also explaining when a token can be part of an investment contract and when that status can end.

The release also explains that the interpretation covers token categories including digital commodities, stablecoins and digital securities, plus specific activities such as airdrops and staking.

The agency said the guidance is meant to give the market “greater clarity,” and the CFTC joined it, signalling a coordinated approach, and underlining the huge regulatory turnaround that has occurred under Donald Trump’s second spell at the White House.

After years of regulation by enforcement (a period now fading into crypto history), the SEC’s new position can only be constructive for crypto in the long-term, offering a cleaner setup for TradFi to enter.

Capital Re-entering Crypto

And speaking of capital entering crypto, flows have been positive lately, according to several metrics:

* BTC ETFs have experienced seven consecutive inflow days.

* ETH ETFs have had six consecutive inflow days.

* SOL ETFs have had five consecutive inflow days.

* Bitcoin DATs have registered inflows of $3.62 billion this month so far.

* The stablecoins market cap has grown by around $7.5 billion this month so far.

All in all then, the market is looking healthier than it has for several months, although, as we’ll see in the next story, economic data indicates that we’re not out of the woods yet.

Economic Data Shakes the Market

Yesterday’s US economic data brought bad news for crypto and risk-on assets, as February’s inflation figures came in hot across the board, and at the FOMC meeting, Fed Chair Jerome Powell announced no change in interest rates.

Headline PPI rose to 3.4%, above the 2.9% expectation, while core PPI hit 3.9%, also ahead of expectations for 3.7%. And on a monthly basis, producer prices rose 0.7% vs an expected 0.3%; a very sharp move.

That core reading is the highest since February 2023, and an important point here is that the new report reflects February pricing, which is before any inflation impact from the Iran war and its disruptions to global oil supplies.

The data announcement caused crypto to immediately dip, while gas and oil are repricing higher and traders are cutting back expectations for Fed easing, with the market now anticipating just one cut, or potentially even none at all, for the rest of 2026.

SOFI Short-seller FUD Offers Rebound Bet

SoFi (SOFI) is an interesting fintech setup recovering from short-seller drama. The company started in student loan refinancing, but has developed into a broader digital financial platform, offering banking, lending, and investing services.

What catches the attention about SoFi right now is that short-selling research firm Muddy Waters recently published a negative SoFi report, SoFi immediately called it factually inaccurate and said it may explore legal action, and SoFi CEO Anthony Noto then bought $500K worth of shares at an average price of $17.32.

The stock is now holding a key level at $17, so if this area acts as support, you’ve got a well-known fintech name, a controversy that may not have long-term substance, and a chart looking clean for a possible rebound trade, while you can put a stop below support in case it goes the wrong way.

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