Anthropic Files for IPO

Chart of the Day — Bitcoin's Hashrate is Strengthening
Trade of the Day — NEAR Short Open Now
Alpha Leaks — AAVE, Extended, & Fluid
News Roundup — Anthropic IPO, Fed Rate Decision, & Galaxy Calls the Bottom

Bitcoin's Hashrate is Strengthening

From Glassnode, here’s Bitcoin’s hashrate overlaid against price. Currently, Bitcoin’s hashrate is 1.1 zettahashes per second, which is slightly below the all-time high of 1.3 zettahashes per second, which printed in late October 2025.

Now hashrate is a key health metric for Bitcoin, because it’s measuring how much energy and compute is being used to secure the protocol. Some worried that the declining hashrate for the nine months following 10/10 signaled deeper problems with the protocol, but those fears seem all but gone now, given the significant rebound back towards former all-time highs.

Attributed reasons for the recovery are rising prices, next-gen ASICs coming online, and small-to-mid-sized mining operators coming back online to fill the gap from some of the corporate miners that shifted to AI workloads.

NEAR Short Open Now

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Now things are looking a bit shaky out there, so your Trade of the Day is a short on NEAR. We think this short is open now at $4.43. You can see that NEAR had been consolidating inside an ugly triangle (clean support, ugly resistance), but that support broke on Saturday, and we’ve had three confirming closes below it since. However, the bulk of the potential downwards move still hasn’t happened.

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Anthropic Files for IPO

Anthropic filed its S-1 IPO paperwork with the SEC yesterday. The company plans to list on the Nasdaq under the ticker “ANT” at some point in mid-November.

Reporting suggests that Anthropic is hoping to raise roughly $100B in IPO stock sales and hit a total valuation between $1.5 to $2T. If Anthropic can achieve that initial $100B raise, it will be the biggest IPO launch ever (i.e. SpaceX has the current record at $75B). In its S-1 paperwork, Anthropic declared its total addressable market to be $40T, which is the estimated output of the global knowledge-worker economy.

While the above figures are seemingly intoxicating, Anthropic’s current financials are more sobering. The company’s H1 2026 gross revenue was $16.3B and it still clocked an $80.7B net loss for the same period. Now analysts are currently debating the health (or lack thereof) of Anthropic’s balance sheet (i.e. the optimists points out that Anthropic’s gross revenues are up 1,300% from a year earlier and most of their losses stem from non-cash fair-value charges on convertible notes), so let’s come back to this question in a week or two once we’ve got cleaner information.

But regardless of the numbers and possible projections, the Anthropic IPO will likely be the most consequential to date. And that’s because the US economy and stock market are so heavily concentrated in the larger AI build-out. There are legitimate questions as to whether we’re in an AI bubble, how capable are LLMs, and the prospects of the frontier labs — and Anthropic’s IPO sits near the center of it all. So we’ll be discussing these issues in further detail over the next weeks and months.

Fed Rate Decision is Tomorrow

The Anthropic IPO announcement is getting so much attention, you could be forgiven for forgetting that the Fed’s next interest rate decision is tomorrow.

The decision drops at 2:00 pm ET, with Warsh’s press conference at 2:30 pm. The current target range is 3.75% to 4.00%, and the CME FedWatch is currently estimating a hold at 89.5% and a 25 bps hike at 10.5%.

What’s interesting about the current CME odds is that the market strongly believes a hold will happen, even though our last YoY CPI print came in above expectations at 3.7%. That was up from a prior print at 3.4% and moving in the opposite direction of the Fed’s 2% goal. So what gives?

Well from what we can tell, the likelihood of a hold comes from four factors: (1) Warsh and other Fed officials have recently signaled that they’re comfortable with a hold here, (2) the mid-terms are next week and the Fed doesn’t want to affect the elections, (3) financial conditions have tightened somewhat since the September hike, and (4) the Fed can always hike in December (i.e. odds of a hike then are 73.9%).

Regardless, a hold for tomorrow should mostly be priced in, but expect possible volatility in our assets coming from the statement language and the press conference, with regards to the December decision.

Galaxy Says the Bitcoin Bear is Over

Here’s some hopium to close out today’s issue. Galaxy Digital is officially declaring that our recent Bitcoin bear market is over. Dead. Dunski. Caput. That’s according to a Galaxy research report from yesterday.

Here’s their reasoning:

● Decline in Older Wallets Moving Coins: Wallets that remained untouched for the past five years (rolling) moved a total of 67K BTC in 2024, 47K BTC in 2025, and only 34K BTC in 2026. Basically, true believers have transitioned to a hodling phase, and that helps keep prices elevated.

● US Debt & Deficit Concerns: The US federal debt is $40.44T and growing faster. Galaxy believes that the market will use Bitcoin as a hedge.

● Technicals: Galaxy is focused on the 50W SMA. Bitcoin has held above it for the past five weeks, and Galaxy says their dead bear case remains intact so long as it stays this way (50W SMA is currently at $75.7K)

Galaxy also offered their two cents on Bitcoin’s two pieces of current FUD: AI hacks and quantum. Regarding the former, Galaxy says that AI doesn’t threaten SHA-256 or elliptic curve cryptography (we agree). With regards to the latter, Galaxy says that no quantum computer capable of hacking Bitcoin even exists (true), and that the Bitcoin community is working on quantum hardening anyways (they are).

Finally, Galaxy concludes its report stating that they “believe [that] now is an attractive time to buy and hold Bitcoin.” And if you’ve been reading our issues, you know that we agree here too, as we perceive this particular price window as an excellent value accumulation zone with a relatively low risk of significant downside.

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