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Is Bitcoin’s Cycle Bottom Already In?
With Bitcoin rallying 12% over the past eleven days, major crypto institutions are now debating whether $59K was Bitcoin’s price bottom for this cycle. Here’s the three main camps and their arguments:  ● $59K Bottom, Standard Chartered & Brian Armstrong: Standard Chartered’s Geoffrey Kendrick declared that “winter is over, welcome back to crypto spring”, due to Strategy’s recent 1.5K BTC purchase, spot ETFs flipping back to inflows, and the US / Iran deal. Brian Armstrong’s "instinct" is that $60K was the bottom, and he remains “bullish as ever”.
● Not Sure, NYDIG: Says we haven’t seen full-blown capitulation yet, as always witnessed in previous cycles. But it’s possible that institutional demand has fundamentally restructured Bitcoin’s market dynamics; meaning, we might not get that full-blown capitulation this time.
● $59K Not the Bottom, Galaxy Digital: Only 4 of the firm’s 13 conditions (valuation, miner stress, sentiment, etc) have triggered, so they think we’re due for lower prices. Galaxy’s cycle low target is $40K – $46K, with a possible wider range between $30K - $54K.
We find NYDIG’s arguments compelling, because similar to how many of our euphoria conditions didn’t trigger at the $126K top, it therefore makes sense for many of our cycle low conditions to not trigger at the bottom (i.e. institutional buying and selling is capping both the up and downsides).
But practically speaking, regardless of the exact bottom, Bitcoin likely has significant upside potential long-term. Therefore, DCAing now covers all three scenarios. Moreover, we’re relying on a specific cycle bottom “end” marker (detailed in the Chart of the Day above), rather than guessing the low.
SpaceX’s Valuation Now Higher than Amazon . . . “TIMBER”
SpaceX (SPCX) stock appears to be in melt-up mode. The stock surged 20% trough-to-peak yesterday, and the shares rose another 15% in pre-market trading today, to $227 per share. Those stock valuations mean that the company’s market cap hit above $2.7T, which is higher than the likes of Amazon.
We’re calling bullshit.  The problem is SpaceX’s current fundamentals don’t even come close to justifying this valuation. In 2025, the company posted a $4.9B net loss. In Q1 2026, another $4.28B net loss (in just three months). The space business is forward-looking and very expensive to run, so the company isn’t making net profits yet.
By comparison, Amazon delivered $77B in net income in 2025, and another $30B in net income in Q1 2026. This company is a cash machine, with very strong and realized vertical and horizontal businesses across e-commerce, AWS, and advertising.
In no rational world should SpaceX be valued higher than Amazon currently. The numbers just aren’t there. But we are big fans of SpaceX, and believe this will be one of the world’s most consequential companies. But these current valuations make zero sense, so watch out from below.
This Week’s Key Economic Events & Data
Last week’s US inflation prints came in hot, but largely in line with forecasts. This week brings fresh consumer spending numbers and the Federal Reserve’s next rate decision. Here’s the key releases to watch:  ● Retail Sales for May (Tomorrow, 8:30 am ET): Measures total spending at retail and food service establishments in the US, which means this figure measures overall economic health. Stronger than expected results show strong consumer demand, which reduce the odds of a cut. Consensus is +0.5% MoM (in line with April’s +0.5%).
● Core Retail Sales for May (Tomorrow, 8:30 am ET): Excludes autos, gasoline, and food. Consensus is +0.6% MoM (vs April’s +0.7%).
● Fed Interest Rate Decision (Tomorrow, 2:00 pm ET): The Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold the Fed Funds rate steady at the current 3.50% – 3.75% range. Markets are pricing in a 99.6% chance of no change.
● FOMC Press Conference (Tomorrow, 2:30 pm ET): Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will be holding his first press conference. Investors will be watching for any indication as to whether Warsh will be a hawk or dove.
Inflation remains elevated, but the labor market is relatively solid. So all that means the Fed traditionally would be poised to hold rates steady or raise them. But there’s definitely more Fed future projection uncertainty in the air, given there’s a new sheriff in town and the Iran war appears to be over (i.e reduced inflation pressures).
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