Warning: $105B SpaceX Share Unlock

Chart of the Day — Where is the Nasdaq headed?
Trade of the Day — Short on Micron
Alpha Leaks — ETH ETF reverse share split, and more
News Roundup — SpaceX, Citadel on the bull market, the state of DeFi

Where Next for Nasdaq After Failed Breakdown?

There may be a pattern repeating on the Nasdaq chart. You can see how there was a failed breakdown in March to April this year, as price dropped below support but then reclaimed that level and the EMA 21.

From there, the Nasdaq went on a rally from around 600 to peak at almost 750 in June. As for right now, price again broke below support, but subsequently reclaimed it, and then reclaimed the EMA 21, similarly to before.

There are no guarantees about what happens next, but a repeat of that earlier price action after the previous failed breakdown would mean a further rally from here.

Micron Still Bearish

Micron is still in a bearish structure on the daily, as having put a wick up through the SMA 20, it then rejected at this level and remains below resistance, making lower highs and lower lows with rallies becoming weaker.

As such, we remain short on MU at this point. Go Premium for detailed analysis of Micron and many other trades across crypto and stocks, including recommended entries, stop losses, and take profit targets. Inner Circle members are profiting from our trade setups in all phases of the market, so go Premium today to catch our signals.

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SpaceX Beats Expectations as Shares Unlock

The first SpaceX public earnings report showed the company pulling in Q2 revenue of $7.81 billion, which was above expectations by nearly a billion dollars, and up 92% YoY. Additionally, net loss narrowed to $541 million, while adjusted EBITDA soared by 191% YoY to $3.5 billion.

Starlink is the key driver, with revenue up 66% YoY to $4.29B and global subscribers doubling YoY to 12 million. Also, the firm’s AI revenue surged 213% sequentially, to $2.56 billion. Capex remains at a huge $18.4 billion, but the quarter closed with $100 billion in cash and equivalents, alongside a significant backlog.

Notably, SpaceX has committed to exclusively using Nvidia GPUs because, according to Elon Musk, “they are the best”.

However, traders should be aware that over 900 million SpaceX shares worth around $105B–held by employees and early investors–will unlock for trading today, increasing the company’s free float from 4.9% to 11.8% of outstanding shares.

Citadel Securities: Bull Market Drivers Intact

After July brought a selloff, Citadel Securities has declared that the bull market in equities is still on. In a new note titled August–After the Rest, Scott Rubner, Head of Equity and Equity Derivatives Strategy, signed off with the following conclusion:

“We remain constructive on the medium-term outlook because the structural pillars of this bull market, including record retail participation, passive ownership, and corporate demand for equities, remain firmly intact.

The technical reset we have been waiting for has largely occurred. July did not change the structural bull market. It reset it.”

Rubner states that markets are shifting back towards fundamentals and macro as primary drivers, and also noted that:

“Retail investors have meaningfully reduced risk, leverage has normalized, funding conditions have improved, market concentration has declined, and many of the technical excesses that defined early summer have now been unwound.

At the same time, earnings continue to surprise to the upside, valuations have become more attractive, and corporate buyback demand is set to accelerate as earnings blackout windows expire”.

However, keep in mind here that before the last Fed meeting, Citadel warned of a potential rate hike that never came–accelerating a selloff that enabled Citadel to buy the Situational Awareness portfolio at a discount–before now switching its messaging.

Has the DeFi Decline Reversed?

DeFi has had a rough year so far, as H1 saw a record number of hacks and exploits resulting in losses across platforms of close to $1 billion.

This comes as crypto more broadly has been (in contrast to equities) grinding through prolonged bear market price action, adding to the pressure on DeFi protocols.

However, there are hints that the worst may have passed in this sector, as–according to the above chart from CryptoRank–July brought a small uptick in overall DeFi TVL after a months-long downward trend. TVL collapsed from $154B in October 2025 to $70B in June 2026, but then in July, it grew by 5.3% to $73B.

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