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Citi Says Bitcoin to $113K
Citigroup has raised its 12-month Bitcoin target from $82K to $113K, in a note that was published this past Thursday. The bank also lifted its ETH target from $2,240 to $3,028. Let’s break down their calls.
The bank’s reasoning comes down to two things — ETF inflows and the US Treasury’s bond buybacks.
Regarding the ETFs, Citigroup expects another $5B in net inflows over the next 12 months. The bank believes the inflows will be “slower but stickier,” meaning the inflows should look slow and steady, rather than all at once. And if this $5B projection is correct, it means the ETFs alone will absorb about 33% of Bitcoin’s newly-mined supply over the next 12 months.  Regarding the bond buybacks, Citi (correctly) notes that the Treasury’s initial announcement helped Bitcoin break out of its summer slump (but a better characterization is that the Treasury’s announcement ended this cycle’s bear market). And since August, the US Treasury has bought back roughly $15B in US bonds, with the capacity to buy another $16B from now until November 4th. This buyback program, along with historically high bond yields, signals low demand for US debt, which therefore signals US dollar system distress.
Turning to ETH, Citi’s target went up too, but at a smaller percentage rate. $3,028 is 11% above ETH’s current price, while $113K is 30% above Bitcoin’s current price. Citi’s reasoning for Bitcoin’s outperformance over the next 12 months is that institutions will buy the largest and most liquid crypto asset first, and that ETH has already pumped relatively hard over these past three months.
Overall, we think Citi’s 12 month forecast for Bitcoin is very logical. A print of $113K by October 2027 basically means that Bitcoin has consolidated inside a broad sideways range since October 2025 ($58K - $126K), and this consolidation makes sense in preparation for a larger breakout to happen before Bitcoin’s next halving in April 2028.
Corporations Load Up (on BTC) Again
It’s a new week, and along with it we get a new round of Bitcoin purchases from the corporations. Here’s the details.  ● Strategy: Bought another 334 BTC for $28.7M, at an average of $85.8K per coin. Total stack is 848,000 BTC, at an average cost of $75.4K per coin. This recent purchase was funded with MSTR sales and cash. This is Strategy’s third consecutive week of purchases.
● Strive: Bought 2,000 BTC for $169M, at an average of $84.4K per coin. Total stack is 29,462 BTC. This is Strive’s biggest purchase in four months, and~61% of this latest purchase came from SATA sales.
● Metaplanet: Bought 1,000 BTC net in Q3. Total holdings are 44,000 BTC. This latest purchase path was odd as Metaplanet sold 10K BTC and then bought 11K back at a higher price to prove Bitcoin’s liquidity profile to investors. Metaplanet is now the second-largest public BTC holder behind Strategy.
Clearly, the corporate bid is alive and well, and expect it to only get stronger once Strategy’s STRC gets back to par (currently it’s at $99.48).
Crypto Regulatory Round-Up
We’ve got a ton of regulatory news coming out of Washington DC and New York this week, so here’s your highlights:  ● US CFTC Leverage Regs: The CFTC proposed two rules yesterday that cover crypto trades using leverage, margin, or financing. The proposals are open for 60 days of comment, but the TLDR here is expect the gates to open wide for crypto leverage and options trading in the USA.
● US Crypto Mixing Rules: FinCEN is withdrawing a 2023 proposal that labeled crypto mixing services as a “primary money laundering concern,” and a 2020 proposal that forced banks to ID customers on crypto wallet transfers above $3K. Neither rule was ever finalized, and this latest directive means they won’t go into effect.
● OKX-NYSE Joint Venture: OKX and NYSE parent company ICE notified the SEC that their 50-50 joint venture, OKXICE, plans to launch a tokenized US stock exchange. If approved, the exchange would start with more than 60 US-listed names and trade 24/7.
Because the CLARITY Act failed, Trump’s regulatory agencies are instead writing the rules. The CFTC is opening up access to leveraged crypto trading, the Treasury is backing off on prior surveillance protocols, and Wall Street continues to put stocks on-chain.
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