●  IN THIS ISSUE

Chart of the Day — A BTC bottoming signal
Trade of the Day — Can HYPE bounce?
Alpha Leaks — BTC & ETH ETF flows, and TradFi crypto plans
News Roundup — Anthropic warning, SpaceX IPO update, and a Zcash crash

●  CHART OF THE DAY

BTC in Loss Flashing a Signal

We can look for hints as to where BTC is headed next based on past patterns, and in that case, this Coinglass chart is useful. It shows the total amount of the BTC supply in loss, and the general way to view this is that more coins in loss = closer to the bottom.

Right now, more than half of supply is in loss, reaching levels that have always correlated with the formation of major market bottoms. That said though, there could be more downside to come, and even at the bottom there can be grind and chop to process before sentiment improves.

●  TRADE OF THE DAY

Has HYPE Found Support?

HYPE has sold off sharply from its peak, but is set up for a potential bounce as it may be finding a new support level. There are risks involved here, and HYPE’s next move depends to an extent on how BTC behaves in the coming days, but we’re seeing a potential trade opening up.

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●  ALPHA LEAKS
SPCX · STOCK

SpaceX has announced a Cloud Service Agreement with Google, in which Google will pay SpaceX $920 million a month from October 2026 to June 2029, although from the start of 2027 the contract can be cancelled by either party with 90 days notice.

BTC · CRYPTO

Spot BTC ETFs had their first positive day since May 14th, collectively taking in net inflows of $3.05 million on Thursday, but this was followed by larger outflows again on Friday.

ETH · CRYPTO

Spot ETH ETFs also experienced inflows, in this case for the first time since May 8th, taking in a collective net inflow of $19.3 million on Thursday, with outflows then reaching $6 million on Friday, meaning they outperformed the BTC funds.

PUMP · CRYPTO

Pump Fun has launched Pump Fun Go, a platform where bounties for completing tasks can be created and paid for.

BMNR · STOCK

Bitmine is proposing a Series A Perpetual Preferred Stock offering. This would constitute 3 million shares, with the stock accumulating dividends at a fixed rate of 9.5%.

V · STOCK

Stripe, Visa, and Mastercard are reportedly teaming up to launch a stablecoin platform for cross-border settlements, with Coinbase said to be considering joining the project.

JPM · STOCK

A payment network company called Clearing House, which is co-owned by JPMorgan, Bank of America, Citibank, Wells Fargo, and other banks, is working on a tokenized deposit network intended to link up TradFi and crypto.

●  NEWS ROUNDUP

Anthropic Warns About AI Acceleration

Leading AI firm Anthropic, creator of Claude, has issued a new report titled When AI Builds Itself, in which it explains that, “the rate at which AI models improve is accelerating”, alongside some impressive numbers detailing how task completion capacity is now doubling every four months, which is up from every seven months previously.

Anthropic also predicts that on current trends, “in 2027, AI systems could be capable of tasks that take a person weeks.”

But what really caught attention were two key points:

● A potential scenario in which “AI systems themselves become capable of full recursive self-improvement, and begin building their successors.”

● A suggested pause in development, with Anthropic stating,

“We believe it would be good for the world to have the option to slow or temporarily pause frontier AI development to enable societal structures and alignment research to keep up with the advance of the technology.”

It’s very unusual to hear a tech company (or any other kind of company) state that progress is going too well, so that second statement certainly stands out.

On the other hand though, a cynic might point out that Anthropic is lining up one of the largest IPOs the world has ever seen, in direct competition with both OpenAI and SpaceX (which includes xAI), and so making ominous statements works in their favor by keeping focus on the company and its tech.

No Fast Track Index Inclusion for SpaceX

Sticking with the subject of IPOs, a statement from the S&P Dow Jones Indices has clarified that there will be no changes to the criteria for S&P 500 inclusion with regard to megacap corporations.

This means that SpaceX will not be fast-tracked for index inclusion, in contrast to recent speculation that the rules would be changed.

There had been a lot of discussion around fast-track inclusion, with some passive investors framing it as being forced to buy SpaceX at an inflated valuation, so for those opposed, this is good news.

The upshot then, is that SpaceX will have to trade publicly for at least 12 months before inclusion (rather than a proposed six months), and meet existing criteria around profitability, float, liquidity, and market cap.

Zcash Crashes on Bug Discovery

Crypto ended the week with another catastrophe, as Zcash revealed a vulnerability that immediately caused the ZEC price to crash by over 50%.

In short, the sequence of events was:

● Zcash, using AI tools, found a critical bug in Orchard, a shielded pool.

● That bug has been around for four years, and could potentially have allowed the creation of unauthorized ZEC, meaning the supply may have been inflated.

● Because Orchard is private, it’s not possible to check whether any fake tokens were created.

● Developers fixed the bug and the Zcash Foundation states there is currently no evidence of unauthorized token creation.

● A further upgrade has been proposed in order to verify that no tokens were created.

So, although the bug may not have been exploited, this cannot–through the nature of the privacy protocol–be immediately verified for certain.

And the longer-term issue is that the four-year-old bug was only now uncovered using AI tools. This raises the likelihood of there being more vulnerabilities across other protocols, although keep in mind that AI discovery tools are available to security teams as well as attackers, so we’re really just witnessing the next phase of an endless cyber-security battle.

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