Rate Hike Odds Dip

Chart of the Day — BTC issuance against ETF demand
Trade of the Day — AAPL technically bullish
Alpha Leaks — Exploits on BTC products
News Roundup — Jobs and the market, Clarity Act delay, MetaMask AI wallet

BTC Mining Still Exceeds ETF Inflows

This chart, posted by Glassnode co-founder Dario, shows BTC ETF flows measured against new BTC issued.

The good news is that ETF flows recently flipped positive again after a very deep period of outflows, with 8,500 BTC coming in across thirty days. However, this is still low compared to previous positive periods, and importantly, it’s below the amount of BTC mined across that time, which comes to 13,300 BTC.

To get firmly back into bullish territory, we would ideally see ETF demand exceeding new issuance, so, it looks like there is a way to go yet.

AAPL in a Bullish Pattern

Apple stock appears to be trading in a technical bullish structure right now, making higher lows and higher highs, even as it remains under the SMA 20.

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Jobs Report: Bad News Is Good News for Markets?

The latest US jobs report, released yesterday, was weaker than expected, showing that jobs fell by 23,000 in July, versus expectations of an 85,000 increase, while May and June were revised down by a combined 103,000 jobs.

The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, but this appears largely to be because of people leaving the labor force, pushing participation down to 61.4%, which is the lowest that metric has been for over five years.

However, for markets, this may be one of those moments when bad news is good, as the probability of a September Fed rate hike fell from around 55% before the report to 44% afterwards. Potential hikes are a headwind for risk assets, so this decrease strengthens the bull case.

And there are other reasons for cautious optimism too, as July already brought deleveraging, resetting what had become some very crowded technology trades, while Q2 earnings have been strong, with S&P 500 earnings growing at their highest YoY rate since Q3 2021.

That all said though, keep in mind that risks remain: The rate hike probability has lowered, not disappeared, the US-Iran conflict is still unresolved, and a midterm-election year carries the potential for increased volatility.

Senator Lummis on Clarity Act Delay: “This Fight Is Far From Over”

The US Senate will not vote on the Clarity Act before its August recess, delaying a decision until at least September, with Senate Majority Leader John Thune stating that the bill is being “queued up first thing when we come back”.

Republicans need 60 votes to advance the bill–which is intended to establish a clear federal framework for digital assets–meaning some Democratic support is required, but as it stands, the legislation is still stuck in process.

To be clear, the September delay does not kill the bill, but it prolongs uncertainty while crypto remains stalled in a frustratingly extended bear market, and over on Polymarket, the odds of the act being signed into law this year are down to just 14%.

Responding to the postponement, Senator Cynthia Lummis stated, “I will continue working with my colleagues to get this done–this fight is far from over”.

MetaMask Releases AI Agent Wallet

MetaMask has launched Agent Wallet to the public, allowing AI agents to carry out onchain transactions, while users maintain full custody of their funds.

Users can connect an agent framework, and then set boundaries around what an agent is permitted to do, including, for example, setting daily spending limits, approving protocols, and managing risk preferences. This is in what’s called Guard Mode, but there is also a Beast Mode option, in which fewer rules are applied (although this is not the recommended setting).

Within these rules, agents can then operate independently, with gas fees paid using whichever token is being transacted in, while MetaMask’s onchain protection service, Transaction Shield, operates to enhance security. Currently, the wallet works across 22 networks.

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