Anthropic Shuts Down New AI Over Security Concerns

Chart of the Day — Margin debt is sending a signal
Trade of the Day — HOOD is close to a breakout
Alpha Leaks — Tether's huge robotics investment
News Roundup — Anthropic shutdown, huge SpaceX volume, Coinbase AI integration

Margin Debt Approaching Crazy Levels

If the markets feel a little crazy recently then, well, that’s because the markets actually are operating in extreme conditions.

The chart above was posted by Sam Kovacs, and it shows how margin debt is increasing at an unusually high rate. Margin debt growth is now at 53.3%, and has only extended past 55% six times since 1960, and here’s the important point: five times out of those six, a major market crash followed around three months later.

HOOD Ascending Triangle

HOOD is tapping at the top of an ascending triangle with plenty of upside potential if it breaks out. We feel that this is likely to move higher, although it may not happen immediately, so a long on breakout and confirmation is the smart move.

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Anthropic Shuts Down New AI Models

AI leader Anthropic has abruptly shut down access to its two newest versions of Claude, Fable 5 and Mythos 5.

This comes after the US government issued an export control directive, citing national security concerns and ordering that no foreign national–whether inside or outside the US, and including Anthropic employees–may be permitted access to the models, which effectively leaves Anthropic with no option other than to remove access universally.

Anthropic stated that this is because the US government has evidence of a “potential narrow, non-universal jailbreak” on Fable 5.

This comes just days after Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei published an essay declaring that,

“Frontier models pose very real risks to cybersecurity, creating the potential for disruption of the financial sector, critical infrastructure, and national security”.

He also wrote, “I believe that biological risks may soon follow”, and argued that,

“The government should have the power to block or deter deployment of the model if it is determined, in light of third-party assessment, to present unacceptable risks”.

SpaceX IPO Touches Down

The largest IPO the world has ever seen finally came to pass yesterday, and it’s fair to say that SpaceX has lived up to the hype so far.

The IPO price per share was $135 and it closed trading at $160.95, which puts SpaceX at a $2.1 trillion market cap, making it the seventh most valuable company in the world, a placement made all the more remarkable by the fact that it is still a loss-making company.

In fact, SpaceX posted net losses of $4.9 billion last year, on revenue of $18.9 billion, and followed that up with losses of $4.3 billion just in the first quarter of this year–a figure driven by the company’s enormous capex bill. Also, at its current price, SpaceX is trading at a 94x price/sales ratio, whereas for comparison, Nvidia trades at 19.6x, and for Amazon the ratio is 3.5x.

Still though, one result of the IPO is that Elon Musk is now officially the world’s first trillionaire, and traders have been making the most of volatility, with first day SPCX trading volume hitting $85 billion.

As for how SpaceX has affected the market, the air has been sucked out of other space stocks–such as RKLB, ASTS, and LUNR–creating the potential for a rotation trade: If SpaceX starts to trade lower (as would be usual after initial IPO hype), then we might potentially see the rest of the sector recover at the same time.

Coinbase Launches AI Agent Trading

Coinbase has launched Coinbase for Agents, a product allowing users to connect an AI agent, after which the agent can autonomously trade on the user’s behalf, across crypto spot and derivatives markets.

In a CNBC interview, Coinbase AI Product Lead Al Murr predicted that the shift towards agentic activity would echo previous previous tech transitions, stating,

“In the 2010s, every internet company dealt with the transition from desktop and web into a mobile environment. And now in the late 2020s, we’re seeing the exact same thing happen where agents are going to be the new primary economic actors on the internet”.

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