Memory Stonks are Dumping

Chart of the Day — Bitcoin's Long Term Holder Supply (Bullish)
Trade of the Day — Shorting Sandisk [SNDK]
Alpha Leaks — AAPL, HYPE, & META
News Roundup — Memory Stock Dump, CLARITY De-Prioritized, & Fed Rate Decision

Bitcoin's Long Term Holder Supply (Bullish)

From Bitcoin Magazine Pro, check out the current Bitcoin long term holder (LTH) supply, which is defined as the total amount of circulating Bitcoin that’s held by addresses that have held said Bitcoin for 155 days or longer. Currently, LTHs have 16.8M Bitcoin under their control, which is a fresh all-time high.

Now what’s most interesting about this chart is the fact that LTH supply and price tend to be inversely correlated. So when price is at new ATHs, LTH supply tends to be at cycle lows. And when price is at cycle lows, LTH supply tends to be at new ATHs.

So given the LTH supply is at new ATHs now, what does this tell us about where price is probably at in terms of a cycle bottom?

Shorting Sandisk [SNDK]

Today’s main discussion (see first news story) is what’s happening to the memory stock sector. But this isn’t an academic exploration. There’s a real trade behind it.

And that brings us to shorting Sandisk, which is your Trade of the Day. Now note that under SMC analysis, Sandisk is in a confirmed bear structure. We got a bearish change of character on July 16th, and yesterday, we got a confirmed bearish break of structure. This all means that we’re now looking for short entries.

But not just any short entry will do. Rather, we’re waiting for a bull-trap relief rally back up to our optimal short entry zone, which currently is between $1,500 to $1,585. From there, we’ll be looking for specific signs to go short.

So go Premium for the full technical setup on shorting Sandisk, with the recommended stop loss and take profit targets, and how to know when to go short. Inner Circle members have been stacking wins recently, with successful BTC, ZCash, and TSLA shorts generating real percentage gains. We’re taking positions regardless if the larger market is going up or down. Go premium today to catch our signals.

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Memory Stonks are Dumping. Here’s Why.

In case you haven’t noticed, memory stocks have been getting hammered over the past 30 days. Micron Technology [MU] is down 32% since its June 25 high, while both Sandisk [SNDK] and SK Hynix [SKHY] have fallen 48% over the same period.

These percentage drawdowns equate to hundreds of billions in erased value, and place the darling memory stock sector firmly within a bear market. So why exactly is this happening? Well, we believe there’s three major reasons for reversal.

● Chinese Competition: Chinese memory maker ChangXin Memory Technologies [CXMT] just IPOed and surged to a $487B market cap. CXMT specializes in DRAM memory, meaning the company is a direct competitor to the aforementioned companies. So essentially, investors are worried that CXMT can expand chip production and offer lower pricing. If successful, that means the massive profit margins enjoyed by the competition will take a major hit.

● Continued Circular Financing Worries: Investors are still concerned about the overall sustainability of AI infrastructure spending. For example, this week, news circulated that Nvidia [NVDA] might provide a $250B financial backstop for an OpenAI data-center project. So basically, Nvidia provides financial support to OpenAI, which is one of Nvidia’s largest buyer clients. Not a great look.

● Classic Post Blow-Off Top Price Action: Pull up the “Psychology of the Market Cycle” chart and compare it to any of the memory stonk darlings. These stocks hit major euphoric levels, with technicals screaming serious over-bought conditions, and plenty of leverage in the system. These situations can only last so long.

Taken together, the euphoric price action and circular financing had already laid the ground-work for a larger pull-back. So it appears that the Chinese competition was enough to tip the scales into a full-blown memory bear market. Now looking forward, we’re thinking that most of these stocks likely revisit their respective 200D SMAs within the next several months, which means this downtrend is probably less than halfway from finished.

CLARITY Act Gets De-Prioritized

Breaking news as of this week, US Senate Republicans have de-prioritized the CLARITY Act in favor of other bills instead. Moreover, there’s still no bipartisan agreement on the ethics provisions within the bill, so it’s unclear at this point if Republicans have secured the seven Democrat votes needed to push the bill across the finish line.

So with Congress’ summer recess set to begin around August 8th, only a very short window of time remains. For CLARITY to pass before the recess, lawmakers would need to clear the bills ahead of it, finalize the text, formally pass the bill, send it to the House for reconciliation, and get it signed by the President.

Given the de-prioritization and the continued ethics disagreement, it’s looking unlikely to very unlikely that CLARITY becomes law this year. Analysts have long said that the bill needs to clear Congress before the August recess, and there simply isn’t much time left on the calendar to do it. Polymarket is currently pricing the odds of CLARITY becoming law in 2026 at 36%.

Warsh’s Second Fed Rate Decision is Thursday

The Federal Reserve announces its latest interest rate decision under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh this Thursday. Now according to the CME FedWatch, markets are pricing a 66% chance of no change, with a 33% chance of a rate hike.

Here’s the macro backdrop heading into the meeting:

● Inflation: Recent data has shown some cooling, but levels overall remain elevated. June’s MoM CPI came in at -0.4%, but the Fed’s preferred measure, YoY PCE, was still sticky at 3.4% in May. There is some expectation that Thursday’s PCE print could show further cooling, but Warsh has continued to emphasize that he’s committed to the 2% target.

● Labor Market: The unemployment rate is holding steady at 4.2%, with layoffs remaining low. At these levels, the labor market doesn’t require a rate cut to support maximum employment.

● Economic Growth: Q1 GDP came in above expectations at 2.1%. The forecast for Thursday’s Q2 print is 2.3%. Similar to the labor market, the data suggests that the economy is in no need of a cut.

On balance, inflation remains the Fed’s biggest concern. So that tilts the risk towards higher rates (rather than cuts). A hike this Thursday still looks unlikely, but the probability of a 25 bps increase at the September 16th meeting is currently 55% according to FedWatch.

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