This Crypto Bull will be the Biggest

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10/10 Anniversary

It’s been a full year since October 10, 2025, and from all the data available to us, we can say that this cycle’s Bitcoin bottom very likely printed on July 1, 2026 at $57.8K (which was nine months after October 10th).

Now if the July bottom holds, then the four-year cycle theory gets cracked hard enough to render it as a less reliable guide moving forward (and we think that’s a good thing).

As we’ve discussed before, Bitcoin’s tops and bottoms have been constant in terms of timing since 2015. The tops have printed three years after the previous cycles’ bottoms, and the bottoms have printed one year after the previous cycles’ tops.

But that didn’t happen in this cycle’s bottom. We’re one year post the 10/10 top right now, and Bitcoin is up 41% from its July low. This is a significant deviation both in terms of timing and price, and it puts us in bullish uncharted waters.

Google: Quality Over Quantity

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With regard to trading, quality is > than quantity. Meaning, it’s better to focus on fewer, high-quality setups, rather than higher quantity setups that are less clear. And that’s why we’re reiterating our Google dynamic setup from one week ago.

Google is right now consolidating inside a clear symmetrical triangle, and we suspect a breakout or down might be coming this week, given the major economic prints that are on schedule (see third news story). For this trade, we like longs if prices break above $361 and shorts if prices break below $336.

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This Crypto Bull will be the Biggest

This was Bitmine’s claim last week in a published investor report. To repeat, Bitmine and Tom Lee believe that this upcoming crypto bull cycle will be larger than any prior crypto bull cycle on record.

Now that’s quite a claim, so here’s their reasoning:

● Tokenization: Tens of trillions in RWAs and stocks are being tokenized and moving onto the blockchains. A select few L1s including Ethereum will be the primary beneficiaries.

● Fresh Inflows: Tens of trillions in wealth is being transferred from older to younger generations (the latter of which invest in crypto), and institutional buying should only increase from here.

● Corporate Treasuries: They’re acting as near-permanent bidders, and their buying will only amplify this cycle’s upside.

● Artificial Intelligence: Crypto is downstream from AI and benefits from it. Additionally, crypto will likely be the money of choice for AI agents.

Although Bitmine never explicitly declared it, we think their claim likely refers to absolute dollar figures, rather than percentages. In percentage terms, the largest crypto bull on record was 2015 – 2018, when the total crypto market cap rose 36,000%.

That’s not going to happen this time.

However, the largest cycle in dollar terms was 2022 – 2025, when the total crypto market cap grew by $3.57T. Under that framing, Bitmine and Tom Lee’s claim is very reasonable, because the total crypto market cap only needs to print above $6.26T to break that prior record. That’s only a 131% gain from here. We think the catalysts stated above are enough to get us there.

Bitcoin-Backed Loans Go Live for South Korean Institutions

South Korea’s Jeonbuk Bank has begun issuing Bitcoin-backed loans to corporate clients. These are South Korea’s first crypto-backed loans from traditional banks to institutions.

Here are the basics of how the loans work. The bank receives Bitcoin as collateral from the borrower and issues a loan in Korean won. The bank does not hold the Bitcoin, but instead uses a registered crypto service provider for custody. If the borrower defaults, the bank recovers funds through a court-ordered Bitcoin sale. This court-ordered sale follows South Korean digital asset law that was officially implemented on October 1st.

Note that loan rates, borrowing limits, and collateral requirements haven't been disclosed. Jeonbuk Bank did review multiple cryptocurrencies as potential candidates, but they ended up selecting Bitcoin due to its lower volatility, deeper liquidity, and lower risk profile.

Ultimately, we know that institutions are increasingly treating Bitcoin as a store-of-value asset, but this news is further confirmation that they also want to use it as collateral.

This Week’s Economic Data Prints

This week’s economic prints matter more than usual. CPI and PPI are the main inflation metrics that the Fed watches, and this week’s numbers should have an outsized impact on the October 28th decision.

● Core CPI (Wednesday, 8:30 am ET): Measures underlying consumer inflation, stripping out food and energy. Previous MoM was 0.3%, forecast is 0.2%.

● CPI (Wednesday, 8:30 am ET): Measures price changes on a fixed basket of US consumer goods and services. Previous MoM was 0.4%, forecast is 0.6%. Previous YoY was 3.4%, forecast is 3.6%.

● PPI (Thursday, 8:30 am ET): Measures US producer inflation. Previous MoM was 0.4%, forecast is 0.5%.

● Retail Sales (Thursday, 8:30 am ET): Measures monthly change in US retail spending. Previous MoM was 1.2%, forecast is 0.3%. Core previous MoM was 1.4%, forecast is 0.5%.

These are the last major inflation prints before the October 28th meeting. The market is currently pricing a 79.5% chance of a hold. So hotter-than-expected CPI or PPI prints should pull that probability lower, and risk assets could get suppressed with it.

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