The Market Signal Everyone's Ignoring

Chart of the Day — The AI Race Has A Clear Cloud Leader
Trade of the Day — Bulls Defend the Pepe Trendline
Alpha Leaks — Apple, Riot, Zeta earnings, a Mara acquisition + more
News Roundup — The Change Nasdaq Quietly Made, Korean Tech Stocks + more
Degen Play — Arb Opportunity: Venezuela Leadership Bet

The AI Race Has A Clear Cloud Leader

Alphabet [GOOGL] is pulling ahead in the AI infrastructure race. Its latest earnings revealed Google Cloud revenue has exploded 63% YoY, dramatically outpacing Microsoft Azure (40%) and Amazon AWS (28%).

This explosive growth has been fueled by strong demand for Gemini-powered services and enterprise AI workloads. Google has responded with confidence, by increasing its full-year capex spending from a range of $175-185 billion to $180-190 billion.

Whilst all the hyperscalers posted Q1 beats, Google stands out as the fastest-growing major cloud player. Investors are taking notice: the stock price is up 11% in the past week and 22% YTD.

Bulls Defend the Pepe Trendline

PEPE is currently holding a strong technical structure as it builds pressure against a key resistance zone. The most important factor at play here is the price staying firmly above the rising support line and both the 20 and 50 EMAs.

While the initial run-up has slowed, both the MACD and RSI have managed to maintain the bullish momentum they established a few weeks ago, suggesting the underlying trend is still healthy.

Instead of chasing the breakout, the plan is to look for a high-probability entry on a retest of that rising support line near $0.0000038. This allows for a much tighter risk-managed play.

The primary target remains the $0.0000048 level, with a secondary goal of $0.0000052. A close below $0.0000037 would break the trend and invalidate the setup.

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The Stock Market Doesn't Care, Yet (But The Bond Market Does)

With the Strait of Hormuz still closed, the world is repricing accordingly…

Oil

Brent crude futures hit a four-year high of $125 on Thursday, before WTI fell 3% Friday on hopes of an Iran peace deal. However, Trump publicly rejected it. Kalshi traders still give 63% odds that WTI crosses $120 this year. That oil shock is now embedding itself into every inflation print globally.

Inflation and Interest Rates

Eurozone inflation jumped to 3% in April, the highest since September 2023, driven by energy costs rising to 10.9%. The ECB held interest rates, but a June hike is openly back on the table if inflation continues to run hot. The UK is in the same no-win situation, warning that inflation could rise to 6.2%.

Economic Growth

In the US, the picture is uglier under the hood. Manufacturing in April held its strongest pace since August 2022, but came in below expectations and didn't accelerate. However, it’s the details that are concerning. ISM prices jumped to a 4-year high of 84.6%, while the employment index fell to its worst reading of 2026.

This is growth on the surface, but stagflation underneath.

Bond Yields

The 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.00% this week before pulling back, a level that's triggered S&P pullbacks every single time it's been tested over the last three years.

Stagflation remains the biggest risk to the global economy. But for now, the stock market doesn’t care. It’s new all-time highs again for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq.

The Rule Change That Puts SpaceX In Your Portfolio

Something quietly changed at Nasdaq on Friday, and most investors have no idea - yet. The Nasdaq is about to buy SpaceX at whatever price it lists at. Previously, new stock market listings had to wait at least a year before joining the index. Now, mega-cap IPOs will get fast-tracked in after just 15 days, a rule change reportedly made to win SpaceX's listing.

And that means that anyone holding QQQ or QQQM becomes a forced buyer, whether they like it or not. SpaceX is targeting a June IPO at up to a $2 trillion valuation. Critics, including Michael Burry, say this is pure exit liquidity for insiders.

With this rule changes, it means retail investors will be buying the top, automatically, with no choice in the matter.

Korean Tech Stocks Are Now One Click Away

Interactive Brokers has enabled direct trading for individual South Korean stocks on the Korean Exchange (KRX). Finalized in late April 2026, this rollout allows retail investors to buy local shares of tech leaders like Samsung Electronics (005930) and SK Hynix (000660) directly.

The move follows South Korea’s removal of the Foreign Investor Registration System [FIRS], allowing access via standard identification rather than specialized registration IDs. Amid AI-driven hype for memory stocks like Micron [MU] and SanDisk [SNDK], investors can now trade the in-demand sector in their native market. Don’t fade the bull!

Note for IBKR users: To trade these assets, you must manually enable "South Korea" under Settings > Trading > Trading Permissions in the Client Portal. Ensure you hold KRW (Korean Won) or use a margin account for automatic currency conversion.

Arb Opportunity: Venezuela Leadership Bet

On Polymarket, the YES odds of Venezuela’s leader, Delcy Rodríguez, being out of office this year trades at just 22 cents. Meanwhile, on Kalshi, the NO outcome for the same bet sits at 74 cents.

This creates a win-win setup, although the opportunity is closing fast. By buying YES on Polymarket and NO on Kalshi, you can cover both sides of the outcome for 96 cents in total. This offers roughly a 4% return, regardless of whether the leader stays or goes.

Prediction market arbitrage trades like this don’t last long, so size accordingly. If prices dip back toward previous levels, you can reload the arb at better pricing.

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