The US Promised 1M BTC...They Lied

Chart of the Day — Consumer Sentiment Has Never Been This Low
Trade of the Day — Bitcoin Broke Down, It’s Time To Go Short
Alpha Leaks — Meta Crashed Reddit's Stock Price + more
News Roundup — Quantum Rally, Fed's Regime Change + US 1M BTC Lie
Degen Play — OpenAI's IPO Is Coming, But When?

Consumer Sentiment Has Never Been This Low

The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index fell sharply to 44.8 in May, setting a new record low since records began in the 1950s. This marks the third straight monthly decline, falling from April’s 49.8, below both economist forecasts and the preliminary reading of 48.2. Ouch, that’s an ugly chart.

This means that despite resilient spending, a jobs market that’s still holding up and the stock market close to all-time highs, households remain deeply pessimistic. The main concern of course being risk of a rising inflationary or stagflationary environment from the US-Iran conflict.

57% of consumers say higher prices are eating into their finances, so it’s no surprise to see long-term inflation expectations jump to the highest in 7 months from 3.5% to 3.9%. Gas prices in all 50 US states are now sitting above $4.

Investors should therefore favor themes less tied to the consumer, such as AI infrastructure, energy security, defense and space. Stay cautious on pure consumer discretionary names and watch for any cracks in capex momentum.

Bitcoin Broke Down, It’s Time To Go Short

Bitcoin has broken below the 50-day SMA at $76.5K after being squeezed between the 200D SMA (~$80.7K) above and the 50D SMA below.

We have taken an aggressive short position here. The short-term target is the bottom of the channel and 100D SMA confluence near $72.4K. This setup has produced strong moves in the past when the SMAs are about to cross.

Expect volatility and potential whiplash, we’re prepared to get stopped out if price quickly reverses and reclaims the 50D SMA. Tight risk management is key on this one.

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The US Promised 1M BTC But The Fine Print Just Changed

A new bipartisan bill called the American Reserve Modernization Act (ARMA) was introduced in Congress on Thursday to formally establish a US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.

The legislation imposes a 20-year lockup on all BTC held in the reserve, except for if it’s being sold to reduce the US national debt pile.

But unlike the previous Bitcoin Act, it drops the mandate for the ambitious 1 million BTC purchase target and instead focuses on studying budget-neutral ways to acquire more BTC.

The bill mandates quarterly proof-of-reserve reports, independent audits and full transparency. Despite the changes in the fine print, this marks another significant step toward turning Bitcoin into a long-term US strategic asset.

So the question is…will this ever actually happen? Because Mr. President we’ve been waiting. And BTC is in desperate need of a new catalyst to get the price moving back up.

Quantum Computing Sector Explodes on Trump’s $2B Bet

President Trump pushed back on a new AI executive order at the last minute, scrapping the signing because he feared it would slow America’s lead over China in AI development.

Instead, the Trump administration announced a massive $2 billion funding package in quantum computing. This means the US government now has equity stakes across 9 leading quantum computing companies:

• IBM: $1 billion

• GlobalFoundries: $375 million

• Atom Computing: $100 million

• D-Wave Quantum: $100 million

• Infleqtion: $100 million

• PsiQuantum: $100 million

• Quantinuum: $100 million

• Rigetti Computing: $100 million

• Diraq: $38 million

Cue the green candles…many of these names jumped 20-35%+ in a single day on the announcement. This could be where the next stock market rally comes from.

The Fed's Rulebook Is Under Attack By Warsh

Kevin Warsh just took over the Fed and his real agenda isn't interest rates. He’s looking to make a regime change and here’s what that actually means...

Wall St’s craziest idea is to ditch the fed funds rate as the key policy tool and replace it with the overnight repo rate, which is the short-term funding market that keeps the bond market functioning.

TS Lombard's Steve Blitz put it bluntly: "The repo rate becomes the policy rate." This would give Trump his lower rates on paper, while keeping underlying financial conditions tight enough to fight inflation.

But Fed Governor Barr is already pushing back hard, calling it the "wrong objective" that could destabilize the entire system.

That internal war could create volatility. And downside price action creates opportunities in the market. It’s going to be an interesting rest of the year with Warsh in charge.

OpenAI's IPO Is Coming, But When?

Reports surfaced this week that OpenAI is preparing a confidential IPO filing with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, aiming for a potential stock market debut as early as September this year.

Polymarket currently prices “IPO by Sept 30” at ~30%, while “by Dec 31” sits much higher around 70-72%. Given the recent speed at which SpaceX is pushing towards a fast-track listing, it’s hard to imagine that OpenAI wouldn’t follow a similar trajectory. The question is just how soon is it going to come?

If you think that OpenAI will follow the SpaceX playbook and go for the fast-track listing, then grab the September contract for the asymmetric upside. The safer play is to load up on the December contract, but it seems like the smart money is beginning to position for speed.

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