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Wall St. Swaps TACOs For NACHOs
Wall Street has swapped the TACO trade for NACHO — “Not A Chance Hormuz Opens.” Wall St. is growing skeptical that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen anytime soon with ongoing US-Iran tensions keeping oil prices elevated in the $90-$110/barrel range and shipping insurance premiums high.
Trump says he’s awaiting Iran’s response to a peace proposal, while new sanctions roll out.
Despite the geopolitical uncertainty, the latest US jobs report beat expectations for the second month in a row. The US economy added 115,000 jobs in April, beating forecasts of 90,000, and the unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%.
The market is choosing AI profit strength over near-term macro and geopolitical noise for now. This works while earnings momentum stays strong, but it increases vulnerability if oil stays elevated or tensions worsen.
The AI Data Center Trade Is Back
 Earnings season just confirmed it…the AI data center trade is growing faster than anyone expected. Every major name in the space either signed a deal, raised capital, or is about to report earnings:
● IREN: Signed a $3.4 billion, 5-year AI cloud contract with Nvidia to power AI factories and the right to invest up to $2.1 billion in IREN at $70 a share. Bernstein raises PT to $100.
● Terawulf [WULF]: HPC revenue of $21 million surpassed Bitcoin mining for the first time in Q1.
● Cipher Digital [CIFR]: Signed its third AI hyperscale campus lease client and secured a $200M credit line.
● Digi Power X [DGXX]: Signed a $1.1 billion 10-year data center contract with Cerebras. This could extend up to $2.5 billion.
● Keel Infrastructure (formerly Bitfarms) [KEEL]: Due to announce its earnings on May 11th – investors are hoping for a positive update on its 2.2 GW pipeline leasing progress.
● CleanSpark [CLSK]: Due to announce its earnings on May 11th – any positive updates on its pivot to AI data center could lift the stock price.
Watch this sector on Monday. KEEL and CLSK report earnings, and both have AI pivot stories the market is waiting to price in.
Crypto Clarity Act Senate Showdown Next Week
The US Senate Banking Committee will finally sit down to discuss the long-awaited Clarity Act on May 14th.
The sticking point for months had been the banks fighting a provision that allows stablecoin rewards, arguing it pulls deposits out of the TradFi system.
A stablecoin compromise was first reached in principle on March 20th, allowing exchanges to pay rewards on transaction activity but not on passive savings. However, the final legislative text was only officially released at the beginning on May.
This latest release of the actual wording resolved the longstanding dispute and directly paved the way for the Senate Banking Committee to schedule the executive session for May 14th.
This meeting will be followed by a Senate floor vote in June and House passage before the July 4th deadline.
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